3 ms·
With a 1/6 chance of success, you can deploy multiple destroyers with ICMB intercept capabilities to defend a key target and get much better odds. e.g. Having
by alexpotato 6y ago
With a 1/6 chance of success, you can deploy multiple destroyers with ICMB intercept capabilities to defend a key target and get much better odds.
e.g. Having just three raises your odds to 50/50. (1-((1-1/6)^3) = .51
That essentially halves your opponents nuclear strike capability (at least for that target).
- alacritas0 6y agoYour math is off. The actual chance assuming they're each independent is 42.1%. I'm usure how much the assumption they're independent holds up in this case.
- SEJeff 6y agoModern nuclear missiles (from the US, Russia, and China at least) are all MIRV[1] designs. Each missile might contain, as an example, 10 independent micro-warheads each capable of mass casualties. That means for every single offensive missile fired, the defender has to be 100% effective at countering 10 separate threats. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_independently_targetable_reentry_vehicle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_independently_targeta...
- inglor_cz 6y agoThis calculation only holds if the failures are random, not if the missiles exploit some weakness in the system to get through.