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Oh, great! And the prediction market did not beat polls (it tied with them on swing states and beat them on safe states, as I speculated). I guess between this
by benkuhn 6y ago
Oh, great! And the prediction market did not beat polls (it tied with them on swing states and beat them on safe states, as I speculated).
I guess between this and the other commenter who made money betting 538's model on predictit, I consider this pretty thoroughly debunked.
- nwienert 6y agoYou can’t do the analysis on PredictIt, they limit market size heavily.
- thebean11 6y agoDo you know of any similar sites that don't limit bet size? I saw some sports betting sites were offering odds, but not really a true market like predictit I think
- anonymoushn 6y agoBetfair seems to offer most of the same contracts as PredictIt as two-sided markets with lower fees and no cap on bet size or number of participants.
- Morizero 6y agoThey are geolocked for some features, however
- anonymoushn 6y agoPredictIt also appears to have this issue. I must proxy my traffic through my US VPS to use it.
- dylkil 6y agoaugur
- wodenokoto 6y agoI still kinda feel like the market beat the polls. Kinda. In order to interpret the polls, you need top statisticians with lots of domain knowledge. In order to interpret the betting market, you simply read the odds and are done.
- anonymoushn 6y agoIf you went to the market and you bet that the polls would be correct, you made money. The particular market available to US residents has separate issues about "reading the odds" where events that strictly contain other events are often priced multiple pennies cheaper, the total number of expected presidents is often ~1.1, events with probability at least 0.9 are almost always underpriced, often by a nickel or more, etc.