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That quirk is true on PredictIt, but currently on Betfair there is a very liquid market with millions of dollars on both sides where the implied odds are roughl
by birken 6y ago
That quirk is true on PredictIt, but currently on Betfair there is a very liquid market with millions of dollars on both sides where the implied odds are roughly 95% for Biden and 5% for Trump.
Now, betting markets do have the problem where even if the bet was a "sure thing", it might not be worth betting for a ~5% gain when you account for the risk and effort related to getting the money into and out of the betting market, and I think that partially explains why the market has settled where it is. But still, this highly liquid market had Trump a pretty strong favorite on election night as well.