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Anecdotal evidence is that heavily in favor of the "If I can work from home, I'm going to work from a less expensive home." Which I find a bit surprising since

Anecdotal evidence is that heavily in favor of the "If I can work from home, I'm going to work from a less expensive home." Which I find a bit surprising since a number of people at Google worked in Mountain View and rode the GBus from San Francisco. There is also the COVID factor which is to say if you can't go out to eat or drink at bars, there may be less appeal to living in the city. So next year at this time, post vaccine, will be an interesting comparison. And of course the city politics are always entertaining, but perhaps less so as people get older and start families. Personally I'm looking forward to all of the interesting data sets that include 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. That 5 year stretch should be really interesting to dive into.

deleted 6y ago
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ghaff 6y ago
It's been pretty common over the past couple of decades for younger college-educated people to live in a city but move out at some point as they get older. Anecdotally, this seems to have pushed up the timeframe for a lot of people though I also know a few in the "never imagined I'd leave Brooklyn" camp. I suspect most of those people will not move back especially if they can continue working remotely. One question is whether a fresh cohort moves in when things open back up. That's been the pattern but it's certainly not a law of nature (and wasn't from about the 50s through the 90s).
thehappypm 6y ago
The thing is, Mountain View is hardly cheaper than San Francisco. That's what makes the Bay so weird. There's no way to escape the high prices. I've lived all over the Northeast and the Northeast is definitely expensive but there are absolutely cheap places out there. You can live in a suburb of Providence, Rhode Island, and commute one hair on a direct train to downtown Boston. You can live in much cheaper Lowell or Lawrence and commute, again, one hour to downtown Boston. You can live in Worcester, again, one hour to downtown Boston. And the city has little pockets of affordability, albeit in less nice/higher crime parts, but they do exist. SF really doesn't have this. The public transit is lacking so it's basically cheaper => closer to the jobs, with few exceptions.
- ghaff 6y ago
  And historically (and even today) most of the tech jobs aren't downtown in Boston anyway. Yes, if you want to pay a premium for urban living in Boston/Cambridge, you can do so. But you can escape it pretty easily if you don't want to pay a stiff premium for a personal preference to live in the city.
- reducesuffering 6y ago
  Hayward and San Leandro have home prices 2/5 of SF and Mountain View. It's within a 45 min. drive to many jobs and a 30 min. BART (public transit) into SF.
  - thehappypm 6y ago
    Interesting! How long does it take during a real rush hour? I can imagine that bridge is a nasty choke point. This is a problem with Seattle too -- there is plenty of cheap housing across the Sound in places like Bremerton, but they're a ferry ride away.
    - reducesuffering 6y ago
      The Bay Bridge on the east is definitely a choke point. San Leandro is closer and could take almost an hour driving. Hayward could take an hour but you also have the option of crossing the San Mateo bridge further south and driving up 101, especially if your workplace is closer to the 101 exits on the south side. Ultimately public transport on BART is likely going to be the faster option, since it’s 25-30 mins once you’re on the train.

deleted 6y ago

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ghaff 6y ago

It's been pretty common over the past couple of decades for younger college-educated people to live in a city but move out at some point as they get older. Anecdotally, this seems to have pushed up the timeframe for a lot of people though I also know a few in the "never imagined I'd leave Brooklyn" camp. I suspect most of those people will not move back especially if they can continue working remotely. One question is whether a fresh cohort moves in when things open back up. That's been the pattern but it's certainly not a law of nature (and wasn't from about the 50s through the 90s).

thehappypm 6y ago

The thing is, Mountain View is hardly cheaper than San Francisco. That's what makes the Bay so weird. There's no way to escape the high prices. I've lived all over the Northeast and the Northeast is definitely expensive but there are absolutely cheap places out there. You can live in a suburb of Providence, Rhode Island, and commute one hair on a direct train to downtown Boston. You can live in much cheaper Lowell or Lawrence and commute, again, one hour to downtown Boston. You can live in Worcester, again, one hour to downtown Boston. And the city has little pockets of affordability, albeit in less nice/higher crime parts, but they do exist. SF really doesn't have this. The public transit is lacking so it's basically cheaper => closer to the jobs, with few exceptions.

ghaff 6y ago
And historically (and even today) most of the tech jobs aren't downtown in Boston anyway. Yes, if you want to pay a premium for urban living in Boston/Cambridge, you can do so. But you can escape it pretty easily if you don't want to pay a stiff premium for a personal preference to live in the city.
reducesuffering 6y ago
Hayward and San Leandro have home prices 2/5 of SF and Mountain View. It's within a 45 min. drive to many jobs and a 30 min. BART (public transit) into SF.
- thehappypm 6y ago
  Interesting! How long does it take during a real rush hour? I can imagine that bridge is a nasty choke point. This is a problem with Seattle too -- there is plenty of cheap housing across the Sound in places like Bremerton, but they're a ferry ride away.
  - reducesuffering 6y ago
    The Bay Bridge on the east is definitely a choke point. San Leandro is closer and could take almost an hour driving. Hayward could take an hour but you also have the option of crossing the San Mateo bridge further south and driving up 101, especially if your workplace is closer to the 101 exits on the south side. Ultimately public transport on BART is likely going to be the faster option, since it’s 25-30 mins once you’re on the train.