3 ms·

Would love to see similar stats for NYC.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/more-than-300000-new-yorkers-have-fled-city-since-pandemic-began/ https://www.nationalreview.com/news/more-than-300000-new-yor... (National Review: More Than 300,000 New Yorkers Have Fled City Since Pandemic Began) Source of data is Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for change of address stats from USPS. EDIT: Y'all shouldn't use this single data point alone for anything of value.
- peterbonney 6y ago
  I think change of address data isn't reliable in a city where so many people own or rent vacation homes within driving distance. The article only posits that the USPS data may miss some people who moved and didn't change their address officially, but it also likely misses people who officially changed their address because they planned to be away for an extended period (6 months or more) but will still return permanently in the future. The plural of anecdote is not data, but for what it's worth I personally know of more people in the second bucket than the first. Time will tell, of course.
- Spooky23 6y ago
  There's alot of noise about this; the NY Post in particular is talking about "everyone" moving out, with the most popular destination being the Hamptons. I'm in NYC 3-5 times a month. It's slower with fewer office workers in Manhattan, but it's still NYC. Manhattan is less busy in some areas anyway as the new construction of money laundering condo units get built. Queens, Brooklyn, etc look pretty much the same, but then the scope of "everyone" fleeing to their Hamptons beach homes is limited in scope.
thehappypm 6y ago
I think a difference is that NYC was probably more of a shift from cramped apartments downtown to larger apartments/homes in the suburbs. I don't know if that many people fled the greater NYC metro, whereas SF has a lot of flight to other regions entirely. Anecdote: my parents live in an outer suburb of NYC, about an hour driving with zero traffic, that has a train line to Hoboken (with a couple options to transfer to NYC, or just take a ferry from hoboken) that takes like 90 minutes one-way. They've actually seen a ton of people move into the developments around them this year. People want the space, the lower cost, and it's a pretty area near hiking trails and nice parks. Schools aren't top-tier but they're pretty good. Sure, nobody wants a 90 minute+ train ride every day, but if you only have to do it a couple times a week, and there are tech jobs in NJ itself to eventually seek out, it's not a bad choice.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/more-than-300000-new-yorkers-have-fled-city-since-pandemic-began/ https://www.nationalreview.com/news/more-than-300000-new-yor... (National Review: More Than 300,000 New Yorkers Have Fled City Since Pandemic Began) Source of data is Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for change of address stats from USPS. EDIT: Y'all shouldn't use this single data point alone for anything of value.

peterbonney 6y ago
I think change of address data isn't reliable in a city where so many people own or rent vacation homes within driving distance. The article only posits that the USPS data may miss some people who moved and didn't change their address officially, but it also likely misses people who officially changed their address because they planned to be away for an extended period (6 months or more) but will still return permanently in the future. The plural of anecdote is not data, but for what it's worth I personally know of more people in the second bucket than the first. Time will tell, of course.
Spooky23 6y ago
There's alot of noise about this; the NY Post in particular is talking about "everyone" moving out, with the most popular destination being the Hamptons. I'm in NYC 3-5 times a month. It's slower with fewer office workers in Manhattan, but it's still NYC. Manhattan is less busy in some areas anyway as the new construction of money laundering condo units get built. Queens, Brooklyn, etc look pretty much the same, but then the scope of "everyone" fleeing to their Hamptons beach homes is limited in scope.

thehappypm 6y ago

I think a difference is that NYC was probably more of a shift from cramped apartments downtown to larger apartments/homes in the suburbs. I don't know if that many people fled the greater NYC metro, whereas SF has a lot of flight to other regions entirely. Anecdote: my parents live in an outer suburb of NYC, about an hour driving with zero traffic, that has a train line to Hoboken (with a couple options to transfer to NYC, or just take a ferry from hoboken) that takes like 90 minutes one-way. They've actually seen a ton of people move into the developments around them this year. People want the space, the lower cost, and it's a pretty area near hiking trails and nice parks. Schools aren't top-tier but they're pretty good. Sure, nobody wants a 90 minute+ train ride every day, but if you only have to do it a couple times a week, and there are tech jobs in NJ itself to eventually seek out, it's not a bad choice.