4 ms·

I can't say I'm surprised. Cities aren't nearly as fun when other people have to be considered biohazards. The question that remains to be seen is what percenta

by mholm 6y ago

I can't say I'm surprised. Cities aren't nearly as fun when other people have to be considered biohazards. The question that remains to be seen is what percentage are gone forever?

heavyset_go 6y ago
Yeah, this isn't like downturns in populations of other cities, like Scranton, that reflect deep systemic or economic issues. This flight is a direct response to COVID, and I'd expect to see it reverse relatively quickly after the pandemic resolves.
duxup 6y ago
Even in non San Francisco areas: On the internet there were a lot of questions from folks in the city asking about a non crowded park. Most of the answers were "just drive out to the suburbs", and even folks who said they didn't want to ... were eventually giving that advice to others pretty fast. I don't know that we're going to see permanent type decisions made, but in an epidemic like COVID, and you wanted to go outside, it was hard to avoid that you needed to head out of town to do any distancing.
macspoofing 6y ago
Especially since the best parts of city-living (restaurants, clubs, bars, concerts, shows, etc.) aren't an option during a pandemic.
ProfessorLayton 6y ago
Forever might be a bit of a stretch, but I believe there's a lot to be concerned about the negative feedback loop that awaits SF and cities like it. A lot of businesses that make the city desirable to a lot of people (read: tax base) are on an indefinite hiatus due to the virus, meaning there's little reason to pay exorbitant prices to live in SF for the time being. The problem is that a lot of businesses won't be able to survive this recession, and the city's tax base will shrink further. Yes, those businesses will eventually be replaced, but it won't be a quick affair if we reach the point of no return. Further complicating this matter for the businesses that do survive will be the fact that new businesses will be able to run much leaner due to being able to lock in much cheaper leases and not shackled with debt. While I don't believe SF is doomed by any means, I do think that it's in for a day of reckoning unless it can reconcile its hugely bloated budget with the fact that it'll be a prolonged climb to where it was. Now with a vaccine on the way it may be able to avoid this if it's distributed fast enough, but I do think the window is closing rapidly.

by mholm 6y ago

I can't say I'm surprised. Cities aren't nearly as fun when other people have to be considered biohazards. The question that remains to be seen is what percentage are gone forever?

heavyset_go 6y ago

Yeah, this isn't like downturns in populations of other cities, like Scranton, that reflect deep systemic or economic issues. This flight is a direct response to COVID, and I'd expect to see it reverse relatively quickly after the pandemic resolves.

duxup 6y ago

Even in non San Francisco areas: On the internet there were a lot of questions from folks in the city asking about a non crowded park. Most of the answers were "just drive out to the suburbs", and even folks who said they didn't want to ... were eventually giving that advice to others pretty fast. I don't know that we're going to see permanent type decisions made, but in an epidemic like COVID, and you wanted to go outside, it was hard to avoid that you needed to head out of town to do any distancing.

macspoofing 6y ago

Especially since the best parts of city-living (restaurants, clubs, bars, concerts, shows, etc.) aren't an option during a pandemic.

ProfessorLayton 6y ago

Forever might be a bit of a stretch, but I believe there's a lot to be concerned about the negative feedback loop that awaits SF and cities like it. A lot of businesses that make the city desirable to a lot of people (read: tax base) are on an indefinite hiatus due to the virus, meaning there's little reason to pay exorbitant prices to live in SF for the time being. The problem is that a lot of businesses won't be able to survive this recession, and the city's tax base will shrink further. Yes, those businesses will eventually be replaced, but it won't be a quick affair if we reach the point of no return. Further complicating this matter for the businesses that do survive will be the fact that new businesses will be able to run much leaner due to being able to lock in much cheaper leases and not shackled with debt. While I don't believe SF is doomed by any means, I do think that it's in for a day of reckoning unless it can reconcile its hugely bloated budget with the fact that it'll be a prolonged climb to where it was. Now with a vaccine on the way it may be able to avoid this if it's distributed fast enough, but I do think the window is closing rapidly.