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I can't help but chuckle whenever I read these comments on HN about how doomed Intel is. Intel just does this. Every now and then, they get so far ahead that t

I can't help but chuckle whenever I read these comments on HN about how doomed Intel is. Intel just does this. Every now and then, they get so far ahead that the rest of the market just totally disintegrates, which allows them to screw around and juice up their margins while failing to actually innovate. Their brand is so strong it takes years for it to erode, even when they do suck, and when they have actual competition they've got plenty of cushion to keep selling old designs while they catch up.

rualca 6y ago
> Intel just does this. Every now and then, they get so far ahead that the rest of the market just totally disintegrates, (...) Past performance does not guarantee future results. Keep in mind you're trying to pin magical properties on a brand, and meanwhile people and technologies come and go.
- JeremyNT 6y ago
  > Keep in mind you're trying to pin magical properties on a brand, and meanwhile people and technologies come and go. Sure, things change! But Intel is huge, and it's got a track record of repeatedly weathering setbacks and missteps only to come back with market dominance. Maybe it's really going to be all about Apple and AMD while Intel plays catch-up for generations to come - I just feel like it's a bit premature to come to that conclusion.
- totalZero 6y ago
  The reality of semiconductor tech is that most people are not paying enough attention to understand when a company is doing well and when it's doing poorly. AMD stock was trading in the single digits well after the company was firing on all cylinders. Intel has encountered major bumps in the road since the early days of 10nm, yet research analysts and technologists alike were praising Intel all over the place until recently. I wouldn't call it a KO until Intel 7nm chips come out. At that time, we'll see if this is a comeback story or just another IBM.
phkahler 6y ago
>> I can't help but chuckle whenever I read these comments on HN about how doomed Intel is. I didn't say anything like that. Simply that if you want to compare performance to the best that is currently not Intel. There is a lot of hype around this new apple chip and people claiming it's a performance king, but I seriously doubt that. Even for mobile I'd like to see it compared to AMD APUs.
the8472 6y ago
14nm was delayed, 10nm was massively delayed, 7nm is delayed again. That's a fairly long run of underperformance. Sure, they sit on enough money that they can recover if they do it right. But there currently aren't any signals that they're getting things right.
- bgorman 6y ago
  Lots of executivees have been fired and Intel has a new CEO. That is certainly a sign that things will... be different.
  - totalZero 6y ago
    True, but on the other hand....CEOs don't design the chips.
- totalZero 6y ago
  Delays aren't necessarily underperformance. Let me offer an example. If Boeing had delayed the rollout of the MAX 8, or even simply reduced the production rate, it may have been able to identify and rectify the MCAS failure mode, thus preventing suspension of the MAX aircraft. In retrospect, they could have delivered more aircraft prior to the pandemic and avoided many of the order cancellations that it brought. Sometimes, it's better to go slowly and get things right than to forge ahead at full steam. We won't know if these 7nm delays are good or bad for Intel, until 7nm actually rolls out.
  - the8472 6y ago
    It is an underperformance relative to their previously published roadmaps. There may be other reasons than just mismanagement for those delays, but they're still delays.
Symmetry 6y ago
Intel has had problems with architectural cul-de-sacs before certainly. But they had other architectures on the back burner they could go back to to recover when things didn't work and they still had their process lead to keep them in the game. Recently, though, Intel's architecture work has been at fine but their process has been the thing having trouble. Maybe they'll be able to get 7nm working properly first try despite the problems at 10nm but I'm not sure given the attrition in their process team after the 14nm death march.
bmurphy1976 6y ago
I don't know, this feels different. Intel's competition is bloodthirsty and attacking from all sides. Intel has nothing in the pipeline and just keeps dropping the ball (don't forget Intel's lack of penetration in the mobile market). This feels more like Microsoft getting blindsided by Google, Apple and Amazon amongst others. Intel isn't going anywhere any time soon, but their reign as king of the mountain may very well be over.

rualca 6y ago

> Intel just does this. Every now and then, they get so far ahead that the rest of the market just totally disintegrates, (...) Past performance does not guarantee future results. Keep in mind you're trying to pin magical properties on a brand, and meanwhile people and technologies come and go.

JeremyNT 6y ago
> Keep in mind you're trying to pin magical properties on a brand, and meanwhile people and technologies come and go. Sure, things change! But Intel is huge, and it's got a track record of repeatedly weathering setbacks and missteps only to come back with market dominance. Maybe it's really going to be all about Apple and AMD while Intel plays catch-up for generations to come - I just feel like it's a bit premature to come to that conclusion.
totalZero 6y ago
The reality of semiconductor tech is that most people are not paying enough attention to understand when a company is doing well and when it's doing poorly. AMD stock was trading in the single digits well after the company was firing on all cylinders. Intel has encountered major bumps in the road since the early days of 10nm, yet research analysts and technologists alike were praising Intel all over the place until recently. I wouldn't call it a KO until Intel 7nm chips come out. At that time, we'll see if this is a comeback story or just another IBM.

phkahler 6y ago

>> I can't help but chuckle whenever I read these comments on HN about how doomed Intel is. I didn't say anything like that. Simply that if you want to compare performance to the best that is currently not Intel. There is a lot of hype around this new apple chip and people claiming it's a performance king, but I seriously doubt that. Even for mobile I'd like to see it compared to AMD APUs.

the8472 6y ago

14nm was delayed, 10nm was massively delayed, 7nm is delayed again. That's a fairly long run of underperformance. Sure, they sit on enough money that they can recover if they do it right. But there currently aren't any signals that they're getting things right.

bgorman 6y ago
Lots of executivees have been fired and Intel has a new CEO. That is certainly a sign that things will... be different.
- totalZero 6y ago
  True, but on the other hand....CEOs don't design the chips.
totalZero 6y ago
Delays aren't necessarily underperformance. Let me offer an example. If Boeing had delayed the rollout of the MAX 8, or even simply reduced the production rate, it may have been able to identify and rectify the MCAS failure mode, thus preventing suspension of the MAX aircraft. In retrospect, they could have delivered more aircraft prior to the pandemic and avoided many of the order cancellations that it brought. Sometimes, it's better to go slowly and get things right than to forge ahead at full steam. We won't know if these 7nm delays are good or bad for Intel, until 7nm actually rolls out.
- the8472 6y ago
  It is an underperformance relative to their previously published roadmaps. There may be other reasons than just mismanagement for those delays, but they're still delays.

Symmetry 6y ago

Intel has had problems with architectural cul-de-sacs before certainly. But they had other architectures on the back burner they could go back to to recover when things didn't work and they still had their process lead to keep them in the game. Recently, though, Intel's architecture work has been at fine but their process has been the thing having trouble. Maybe they'll be able to get 7nm working properly first try despite the problems at 10nm but I'm not sure given the attrition in their process team after the 14nm death march.

bmurphy1976 6y ago

I don't know, this feels different. Intel's competition is bloodthirsty and attacking from all sides. Intel has nothing in the pipeline and just keeps dropping the ball (don't forget Intel's lack of penetration in the mobile market). This feels more like Microsoft getting blindsided by Google, Apple and Amazon amongst others. Intel isn't going anywhere any time soon, but their reign as king of the mountain may very well be over.