2 ms·

I'm very pro-mask but cases are skyrocketing everywhere, even in countries like France and Italy where masking is the norm. I don't presume to know how to fix t

I'm very pro-mask but cases are skyrocketing everywhere, even in countries like France and Italy where masking is the norm. I don't presume to know how to fix the issue, but virologist knew this was going to happen -- it is called seasonal forcing[1]. It's disturbing to me that there are people in the US that dont believe COVID-19 is real (I think you can blame the administration for that), but I'm not sure the spikes are surprising. [1]https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339321846_Impact_of_seasonal_forcing_on_a_potential_SARS-CoV-2_pandemic https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339321846_Impact_of...

pas 6y ago
Fixing the issue is easy, even if brutal. Close everything that can be closed. As the weather turned colder people started staying indoors and the conditions for transmitting the disease turned more favorable. (Eg restaurants, etc.) Plus after a critical mass regular (intuitive) precautions are not enough. Eg in France restaurants allowed people to dine if they looked okay, and had a mask on while waiting for a table, and while not actually eating. Clearly this was too lax. (aug 31 https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Masks-in-Paris-rules-for-eating-smoking-and-exercise https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Masks-in-Paris-r... )
mleonhard 6y ago
Washington State and Maine also experience seasonal forcing. They started requiring masks in June & July. From FT.com [1], here are the number of new confirmed Covid-19 cases, per million residents, averaged over the last 7 days: - Maine: 130 - Washington State: 230 - Idaho: 740 - Montana: 1000 - South Dakota: 1600 From this data, I conclude that mask use is effective at reducing the spread of covid-19. [1] https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usme&areasRegional=usmn&areasRegional=ussd&areasRegional=uswa&areasRegional=usid&areasRegional=usmt&byDate=1&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=cases https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&are...

pas 6y ago

Fixing the issue is easy, even if brutal. Close everything that can be closed. As the weather turned colder people started staying indoors and the conditions for transmitting the disease turned more favorable. (Eg restaurants, etc.) Plus after a critical mass regular (intuitive) precautions are not enough. Eg in France restaurants allowed people to dine if they looked okay, and had a mask on while waiting for a table, and while not actually eating. Clearly this was too lax. (aug 31 https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Masks-in-Paris-rules-for-eating-smoking-and-exercise https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Masks-in-Paris-r... )

mleonhard 6y ago

Washington State and Maine also experience seasonal forcing. They started requiring masks in June & July. From FT.com [1], here are the number of new confirmed Covid-19 cases, per million residents, averaged over the last 7 days: - Maine: 130 - Washington State: 230 - Idaho: 740 - Montana: 1000 - South Dakota: 1600 From this data, I conclude that mask use is effective at reducing the spread of covid-19. [1] https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usme&areasRegional=usmn&areasRegional=ussd&areasRegional=uswa&areasRegional=usid&areasRegional=usmt&byDate=1&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=cases https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&are...