True, my mistake. I'd agree that would be a major concern if on those trend lines post outbreak the 2020 deaths clearly dropped below the historical average.

True, my mistake. I'd agree that would be a major concern if on those trend lines post outbreak the 2020 deaths clearly dropped below the historical average. Given the fact that the year isn't over I'll take FT's analysis over that bar chart OP linked to. If what you say is true it appears to be due to the fact that Sweden's 2020 deaths were below average in February, based on those charts that seems unlikely though. However +20% is an overestimate as a result.