11 ms·

Bitcoin Breaks $17,000

31 points by lanecwagner 6y ago

Communitivity 6y ago
I've heard wide ranging predictions of where it's going in the next five years, with the most common values being around $36k, $150k, and over a million. I suspect it will crash, and then go upward again, because that's what it's been doing. My bet would be that it might reach the milllions, but $150k is more likely. Still, a great profit for any who got in when it sold for $100 USD in 2013. It seems to have a pattern leading up to and after every halving over a four year cycle (https://hackernoon.com/a-detailed-breakdown-of-bitcoins-four-year-cycles-icp3z0q https://hackernoon.com/a-detailed-breakdown-of-bitcoins-four...), though some argue well that it doesn't (https://bitcoinist.com/is-bitcoin-price-cyclical/ https://bitcoinist.com/is-bitcoin-price-cyclical/)
- wcoenen 6y ago
  Let's assume for a moment bitcoin would be worth a million in 5 years. There will have been another halving, so miners will be generating 3.125 bitcoin/block. At 6 blocks an hour, that would be worth 3.125 * 6 * $1M = $18,750,000 per hour. Bitcoin miners tend to find the cheapest electricity, like near hydroelectric dams. So let's assume they can get electricity for $0.05/kwh. And to keep things simple, assume that 100% of their costs are electricity (in reality there will be capital costs and other operational costs, adjust calculation to your own liking). That means they can collectively consume 18,750,000/0.05=375,000,000 kwh/h= 375 gigawatt of power before they stop making a profit. Now compare that to global electricity use, which is on the order of 20,000 TWh/year or about 2000 gigawatt. Bitcoin miners would be using on the order of 20% of all electricity! Except that at those consumption levels, they would start driving up electricity prices, which brings me to my point: will governments really allow everybody's electricity bill to rise significantly because it is profitable for bitcoin miners? I think not.
seibelj 6y ago
Anyone who holds cash right now is losing money. A lot of money! Interest rates in savings accounts and CDs are near-zero, which hurts the poorest most who don’t own inflation-protected assets like houses and equities. One major thing I like about Bitcoin is that anyone can buy small amounts from an app, and even self-custody it themselves. This is similar to gold but much, much easier and because Bitcoin is purely digital you don’t need anything more than an app and an internet connection. Bitcoin is inflation-protection for the global poor, something rich HNers are less likely to appreciate. And I recognize that Bitcoin is extremely volatile, which makes it harder to use as a hedge against inflation. But if you use currency that is guaranteed to lose 30 to 90% of its value per year (Venezuela, Turkey, Lebanon) then dollar-cost-averaging into Bitcoin makes way more sense than holding worthless paper.
- sytelus 6y ago
  Are you serious? Bitcoin is not an inflation protected or anything-protected asset. It’s value goes up and down because of few large players including state. In other words, it’s anyone’s imagination what it’s value will be. A much better option for most people will be to open a free investment account and simply by SPY. They can do it using an app and it’s far less complex as well as safer than evaluating individual Bitcoin exchanges who no one controls and many are downright shady. Unlike Bitcoin SPY is technically US federal government protected asset because US government will always intervene if it’s values dip more than 20% as it affects everyone’s 401Ks and would cause removal of leaders in government. Unlike Bitcoin, SPY is truly inflation protected and ALSO delivers real dividends.
- naveen99 6y ago
  For people without assets, Inflation is their wages rising.
  - londons_explore 6y ago
    Not really - wages usually get renegotiated at least annually, and frequently go up faster than inflation. All inflation does is set a cap on real pay decrease. Since very few businesses will decrease pay, then a 4% inflation environment means Bob who didn't get a rise this year effectively gets a 4% pay cut in real terms.
    - mcraiha 6y ago
      "wages usually get renegotiated at least annually" not everywhere. In many places the only way to get better wages is to change job.
- mcv 6y ago
  Bitcoin is also a great way to lose a lot of money. You're at the whim of an extremely volatile market that's dominated by a few really big players. If you want to invest your money, buy index funds. That's about as safe as it can be while still bringing in reasonable returns. S&P 500 seems to be a particularly stubborn climber. No idea why it climbs harder than other index funds, but it's been very reliable for as long as I've been paying attention to it.
drchopchop 6y ago
The world's slowest-moving Ponzi scheme will continue to grow until either Tether explodes, or enough people want to cash out.
- txmachinery 6y ago
  From the PoV of BTC-proponents, this could be a description of fiat.
- bitxbitxbitcoin 6y ago
  There's a real chance that Tether explodes, Bitcoin crashes... and then rises again because another Tether-like on ramp will appear.
  - mekster 6y ago
    Tether time bomb can be the next winter if this is meant to be a serious bull run.
- nulld3v 6y ago
  I hold a little Bitcoin that I use to buy servers and other stuff online. People have been saying "Bitcoin is dead" for the last 10 years. I'll watch them say it for another 10 years. Yes, Bitcoin has problems. The transaction fees are pretty high. Transactions are slow as molasses. It's value fluctuates wildly. But I don't care because I only really use it on large transactions online. Bitcoin is great for me because it takes me 1 click to send money to anybody else who uses it. If I send a transaction with a decent fee I know 100% it's going to go through. It won't get blocked by my bank for fraud. The government will have no idea I sent the transaction (Bitcoin isn't 100% anon but it's more anon than most other systems). The other party also knows that once the transaction is confirmed, I won't be able to dispute it. I'm also 100% confident that my money is mine alone. Nobody is able to freeze my funds. You can't take my Bitcoin even if you rob my house. It's the confidence combined by the guarantees that gives Bitcoin so much value to me.
  - drchopchop 6y ago
conanbatt 6y ago
Hard to believe it was 3k just 2 years ago. What a whimsical financial product.
- nikolay 6y ago
  I approve your statement if you agree to replace "financial product" with "scam". Thank you in advance!
  - conanbatt 6y ago
    Why scam?
    - nikolay 6y ago
      Because, in practice, as other have explained, it cannot survive - not even in theory. It's impractical, it's slow, it's expensive to transact with. It's the first cryptocurrency, but it also is the worst. It wastes so much energy that I'm not sure how people with green living can touch it with a ten-foot pole!
      - conanbatt 6y ago
        I think your analysis has counter-factual conclusions.
        nikolay 6y ago
        Is it faster and cheaper than the free Venmo, Cash app, Zelle, PayPal, and now Google Pay? NO! It's not 2011 when it offered some benefits in theory. There are other cryptocurrencies, which are orders of magnitude better.
        conanbatt 6y ago
        Must drive you nuts to believe this and yet see bitcoin become so ubiquitous
nikolay 6y ago
Greed makes people stupid - I think there was even a study, which proved it. And Bitcoin is all about greed and nothing else - it cannot be used for payments (it's slow and expensive) and it has a false promise of privacy.

31 points by lanecwagner 6y ago

I've heard wide ranging predictions of where it's going in the next five years, with the most common values being around $36k, $150k, and over a million. I suspect it will crash, and then go upward again, because that's what it's been doing. My bet would be that it might reach the milllions, but $150k is more likely. Still, a great profit for any who got in when it sold for $100 USD in 2013. It seems to have a pattern leading up to and after every halving over a four year cycle (https://hackernoon.com/a-detailed-breakdown-of-bitcoins-four-year-cycles-icp3z0q https://hackernoon.com/a-detailed-breakdown-of-bitcoins-four...), though some argue well that it doesn't (https://bitcoinist.com/is-bitcoin-price-cyclical/ https://bitcoinist.com/is-bitcoin-price-cyclical/)

wcoenen 6y ago
Let's assume for a moment bitcoin would be worth a million in 5 years. There will have been another halving, so miners will be generating 3.125 bitcoin/block. At 6 blocks an hour, that would be worth 3.125 * 6 * $1M = $18,750,000 per hour. Bitcoin miners tend to find the cheapest electricity, like near hydroelectric dams. So let's assume they can get electricity for $0.05/kwh. And to keep things simple, assume that 100% of their costs are electricity (in reality there will be capital costs and other operational costs, adjust calculation to your own liking). That means they can collectively consume 18,750,000/0.05=375,000,000 kwh/h= 375 gigawatt of power before they stop making a profit. Now compare that to global electricity use, which is on the order of 20,000 TWh/year or about 2000 gigawatt. Bitcoin miners would be using on the order of 20% of all electricity! Except that at those consumption levels, they would start driving up electricity prices, which brings me to my point: will governments really allow everybody's electricity bill to rise significantly because it is profitable for bitcoin miners? I think not.

seibelj 6y ago

Anyone who holds cash right now is losing money. A lot of money! Interest rates in savings accounts and CDs are near-zero, which hurts the poorest most who don’t own inflation-protected assets like houses and equities. One major thing I like about Bitcoin is that anyone can buy small amounts from an app, and even self-custody it themselves. This is similar to gold but much, much easier and because Bitcoin is purely digital you don’t need anything more than an app and an internet connection. Bitcoin is inflation-protection for the global poor, something rich HNers are less likely to appreciate. And I recognize that Bitcoin is extremely volatile, which makes it harder to use as a hedge against inflation. But if you use currency that is guaranteed to lose 30 to 90% of its value per year (Venezuela, Turkey, Lebanon) then dollar-cost-averaging into Bitcoin makes way more sense than holding worthless paper.

sytelus 6y ago
Are you serious? Bitcoin is not an inflation protected or anything-protected asset. It’s value goes up and down because of few large players including state. In other words, it’s anyone’s imagination what it’s value will be. A much better option for most people will be to open a free investment account and simply by SPY. They can do it using an app and it’s far less complex as well as safer than evaluating individual Bitcoin exchanges who no one controls and many are downright shady. Unlike Bitcoin SPY is technically US federal government protected asset because US government will always intervene if it’s values dip more than 20% as it affects everyone’s 401Ks and would cause removal of leaders in government. Unlike Bitcoin, SPY is truly inflation protected and ALSO delivers real dividends.
naveen99 6y ago
For people without assets, Inflation is their wages rising.
- londons_explore 6y ago
  Not really - wages usually get renegotiated at least annually, and frequently go up faster than inflation. All inflation does is set a cap on real pay decrease. Since very few businesses will decrease pay, then a 4% inflation environment means Bob who didn't get a rise this year effectively gets a 4% pay cut in real terms.
  - mcraiha 6y ago
    "wages usually get renegotiated at least annually" not everywhere. In many places the only way to get better wages is to change job.
mcv 6y ago
Bitcoin is also a great way to lose a lot of money. You're at the whim of an extremely volatile market that's dominated by a few really big players. If you want to invest your money, buy index funds. That's about as safe as it can be while still bringing in reasonable returns. S&P 500 seems to be a particularly stubborn climber. No idea why it climbs harder than other index funds, but it's been very reliable for as long as I've been paying attention to it.

drchopchop 6y ago

The world's slowest-moving Ponzi scheme will continue to grow until either Tether explodes, or enough people want to cash out.

txmachinery 6y ago
From the PoV of BTC-proponents, this could be a description of fiat.
bitxbitxbitcoin 6y ago
There's a real chance that Tether explodes, Bitcoin crashes... and then rises again because another Tether-like on ramp will appear.
- mekster 6y ago
  Tether time bomb can be the next winter if this is meant to be a serious bull run.
nulld3v 6y ago
I hold a little Bitcoin that I use to buy servers and other stuff online. People have been saying "Bitcoin is dead" for the last 10 years. I'll watch them say it for another 10 years. Yes, Bitcoin has problems. The transaction fees are pretty high. Transactions are slow as molasses. It's value fluctuates wildly. But I don't care because I only really use it on large transactions online. Bitcoin is great for me because it takes me 1 click to send money to anybody else who uses it. If I send a transaction with a decent fee I know 100% it's going to go through. It won't get blocked by my bank for fraud. The government will have no idea I sent the transaction (Bitcoin isn't 100% anon but it's more anon than most other systems). The other party also knows that once the transaction is confirmed, I won't be able to dispute it. I'm also 100% confident that my money is mine alone. Nobody is able to freeze my funds. You can't take my Bitcoin even if you rob my house. It's the confidence combined by the guarantees that gives Bitcoin so much value to me.
- drchopchop 6y ago

conanbatt 6y ago

Hard to believe it was 3k just 2 years ago. What a whimsical financial product.

nikolay 6y ago
I approve your statement if you agree to replace "financial product" with "scam". Thank you in advance!
- conanbatt 6y ago
  Why scam?
  - nikolay 6y ago
    Because, in practice, as other have explained, it cannot survive - not even in theory. It's impractical, it's slow, it's expensive to transact with. It's the first cryptocurrency, but it also is the worst. It wastes so much energy that I'm not sure how people with green living can touch it with a ten-foot pole!
    - conanbatt 6y ago
      I think your analysis has counter-factual conclusions.
      - nikolay 6y ago
        Is it faster and cheaper than the free Venmo, Cash app, Zelle, PayPal, and now Google Pay? NO! It's not 2011 when it offered some benefits in theory. There are other cryptocurrencies, which are orders of magnitude better.
        conanbatt 6y ago
        Must drive you nuts to believe this and yet see bitcoin become so ubiquitous

nikolay 6y ago

Greed makes people stupid - I think there was even a study, which proved it. And Bitcoin is all about greed and nothing else - it cannot be used for payments (it's slow and expensive) and it has a false promise of privacy.