> And further: looking at US figures for 2017, November tends to have about an average number of daily deaths, but December is one of the deadliest months, with

> And further: looking at US figures for 2017, November tends to have about an average number of daily deaths, but December is one of the deadliest months, with about 15% more deaths-per-day than is typical in the lowest-deaths Summer months of June-July-August. > So even my extrapolation to 90,721 is likely to be a floor on the true end-of year number, if lagged reporting or a typical December death acceleration means these November 6 numbers aren't an accurate sample for the full year. I don't think you can assume that. While November to February are usually the months with the most mortalities, it is not certain that pattern will hold this year. The winter months kills a lot of vulnerable people because it is cold outside so people remain indoors close to each other causing infectuous diseases to spread. But this year thousands of vulnerable people died in April and May and there may not be that many left for viruses to kill, so to speak. Here is some interesting statistics showing that September 2020 was the least amount of deaths in Swedish history: https://cornucopia.cornubot.se/2020/10/september-2020-den-minst-dodliga.html https://cornucopia.cornubot.se/2020/10/september-2020-den-mi... An obvious hypothesis is of course that everyone that "should have died" already died in April and May, at the height of the Covid-19 epidemic. Regardless, I think the takeaway of the article is correct. There's a month and a half left of the year and even in a worst-case scenario Sweden is unlikely to register statistically significant excess mortality for the year 2020.