3 ms·

He's off by an order of magnitude. It took about 10 years for my cable internet to go from 100KB/s to 1MB/s where it stands now (this is in Canada). That's a 10

by dstein 15y ago

He's off by an order of magnitude. It took about 10 years for my cable internet to go from 100KB/s to 1MB/s where it stands now (this is in Canada). That's a 10 fold increase in 10 years, not 100 which he is predicting. So by 2021 I expect to have 10MB/s, not 100ish. And unless some anti-UBB legislation gets passed I also expect my bandwidth cap to still be where it is today (90GB/mo).

phlux 15y ago
I disagree - We already have +10Mbps offerings from Comcast etc. The issues is moores law - we will be at multi terabyte backbone links in ten years. The access port in most environments is already 1 gig. (Enterprise environs) You will have a 1 gig link - but you will be metered to some <1 gig feed - and, as we do now, pay for bursting.
- dstein 15y ago
  If you're going to use Moore's law you'd look at what your speeds were 10 years ago. On a cable modem in 2001 I was certainly getting more than 100kbps (~12KB/s), I was probably closer to 1mbps.
  - phlux 15y ago
    But thats not how moores law trickles through the tech stack to the consumer.... We get shifting increase in computing benefits all over the place -- the last place the consumer sees the benefit is in access speeds. Carrier backbone links will continually grow, but consumer access speeds will grow at a much slower rate. The compute power of all devices will grow incredibly fast by comparison (moores law). The reason for this is that you already pay what the market will bear for your access. The infrastructure costs to the carriers are incredible at the access layer, so the cost benefit for them is to upgrade much slower. I predict that the disruption will come from the following potential areas: * Google, Facebook or Amazon will offer a fiber to the home network soon. * Advances in Spectrum technology cost/availability will offer the Gig-link * Municipal networks are seen as the next New Deal and massive technical infrastructure projects are sponsored by the government because they do know how to supply funding for infrastructure and dont understand how to fund startups.
    - chopsueyar 15y ago
      * Google, Facebook or Amazon will offer a fiber to the home network soon. This would be a nightmare working with various municipalities and their right-of-ways. No two situations would be the same. Anytime a road is repaved, the fiber has to come out and be replaced. Lots of maintenance, too. * Advances in Spectrum technology cost/availability will offer the Gig-link Not possible. Has nothing to do with Moore's law. Imagine a family of 5, each watching a separate live 1080p stream. Now, how many people in a town can watch a unique 1080p stream simultaneously? * Municipal networks are seen as the next New Deal and massive technical infrastructure projects are sponsored by the government because they do know how to supply funding for infrastructure and don't understand how to fund startups. Yes, this will save the United States. I'm serious. This is the only viable option.
      - phlux 15y ago
        I think that you will be surprised with respect to the fiber to the home projects in the near future.
        thaumaturgy 15y ago
        Some newer housing developments have fiber-to-the-home, with blazingly fast internet access in perpetuity, included in the price of the home. I have no idea how the financials actually work on that. I don't remember what the speed test was, but I half-wondered if it had malfunctioned somehow because I'd never seen anything like it in a residential area. That said, I suspect that very few people are going to get that kind of access relative to the population as a whole. The U.S. is pretty big, and there are a lot of people in areas that simply aren't feasible to do expensive build-outs. (I live in one such area.)

by dstein 15y ago

phlux 15y ago

I disagree - We already have +10Mbps offerings from Comcast etc. The issues is moores law - we will be at multi terabyte backbone links in ten years. The access port in most environments is already 1 gig. (Enterprise environs) You will have a 1 gig link - but you will be metered to some <1 gig feed - and, as we do now, pay for bursting.

dstein 15y ago
If you're going to use Moore's law you'd look at what your speeds were 10 years ago. On a cable modem in 2001 I was certainly getting more than 100kbps (~12KB/s), I was probably closer to 1mbps.
- phlux 15y ago
  But thats not how moores law trickles through the tech stack to the consumer.... We get shifting increase in computing benefits all over the place -- the last place the consumer sees the benefit is in access speeds. Carrier backbone links will continually grow, but consumer access speeds will grow at a much slower rate. The compute power of all devices will grow incredibly fast by comparison (moores law). The reason for this is that you already pay what the market will bear for your access. The infrastructure costs to the carriers are incredible at the access layer, so the cost benefit for them is to upgrade much slower. I predict that the disruption will come from the following potential areas: * Google, Facebook or Amazon will offer a fiber to the home network soon. * Advances in Spectrum technology cost/availability will offer the Gig-link * Municipal networks are seen as the next New Deal and massive technical infrastructure projects are sponsored by the government because they do know how to supply funding for infrastructure and dont understand how to fund startups.
  - chopsueyar 15y ago
    * Google, Facebook or Amazon will offer a fiber to the home network soon. This would be a nightmare working with various municipalities and their right-of-ways. No two situations would be the same. Anytime a road is repaved, the fiber has to come out and be replaced. Lots of maintenance, too. * Advances in Spectrum technology cost/availability will offer the Gig-link Not possible. Has nothing to do with Moore's law. Imagine a family of 5, each watching a separate live 1080p stream. Now, how many people in a town can watch a unique 1080p stream simultaneously? * Municipal networks are seen as the next New Deal and massive technical infrastructure projects are sponsored by the government because they do know how to supply funding for infrastructure and don't understand how to fund startups. Yes, this will save the United States. I'm serious. This is the only viable option.
    - phlux 15y ago
      I think that you will be surprised with respect to the fiber to the home projects in the near future.
      - thaumaturgy 15y ago
        Some newer housing developments have fiber-to-the-home, with blazingly fast internet access in perpetuity, included in the price of the home. I have no idea how the financials actually work on that. I don't remember what the speed test was, but I half-wondered if it had malfunctioned somehow because I'd never seen anything like it in a residential area. That said, I suspect that very few people are going to get that kind of access relative to the population as a whole. The U.S. is pretty big, and there are a lot of people in areas that simply aren't feasible to do expensive build-outs. (I live in one such area.)