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But the projection is already for excess deaths over half of the years. (And especially: last year.) That's not fairly-described as "no excess deaths". And, fo

by gojomo 6y ago

But the projection is already for excess deaths over half of the years. (And especially: last year.) That's not fairly-described as "no excess deaths". And, for the other reasons I listed: * the projection is highly likely to be an underestimate of the actual 2020 deaths * an apples-to-apples comparison of the deaths through November 6 in past years would be quite likely to show a notable excess in 2020, given the seasonal nature of the data left out (higher rates of deaths late-November and December) even in normal years So only a naive interpretation, or tendentious interpretation, of the 2020 year-to-date numbers supports the headline assurance.

dmix 6y ago
So basically we just need to wait until after the years end to know. What do you think? A month or two into 2021? https://i.imgur.com/E1M8eMj.png https://i.imgur.com/E1M8eMj.png The fact the prior "spikes" during April-June, which were way smaller than the current November spike (1678 june peak vs 5764 nov peak) didn't already caused a notable increase is mildly interesting. But really Sweden did great overall until recently when the had the first major spike. Maybe 1000/day extra covid positive cases really isnt enough to move the fatality needle much compared to the average normal deaths... and in many countries recent spikes (Sept-Nov) have also had much lower fatality rates vs positive rates as well.