Y'see, that's much more sensible... an 89% chance that he was within 300km of his last known location, given that he can't exactly get on a plane, sounds way mo

Y'see, that's much more sensible... an 89% chance that he was within 300km of his last known location, given that he can't exactly get on a plane, sounds way more plausible than an 89% chance that he was in one particular medium-sized Pakistani town. (Of course it's also unfalsifiable to say that he has a 90% chance of being somewhere...) And yet the nature of the internet news cycle is such that I'll be reading for weeks to come that a group of geographers correctly predicted two years ago that he was in Abbottabad and that anyone with google maps could have found him ages ago. Sigh.