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No one benefits from painting vaccines as invincible magic. We don't want to give the actual crazies any more fuel then we have to. Realism is important for res

No one benefits from painting vaccines as invincible magic. We don't want to give the actual crazies any more fuel then we have to. Realism is important for restoring the "credibility of science" after the flailing contradictory guidance we got from official sources early in the pandemic.

tachyonbeam 6y ago
I don't think anyone with any amount of scientific background thinks that these first-generation vaccines will eradicate COVID, but IMO the actual data says immunity is likely to be very good and last for 6+ months, probably more. Then, in 2022, we'll get new vaccines that account for new COVID mutations, and we'll make another big dent in the number of cases again.
- ksenzee 6y ago
  "Eradicate" is a very strong word. We haven't eradicated measles or diphtheria, either. I think everyone would be pretty happy to get covid-19 down to the same incidence as measles.
  - emn13 6y ago
    I hope we have a better chance of eradicating covid, than we do measles. A first factor making measles harder to eradicate is that it can strikes fairly early in life, and covid appears to affect young children much less and not to be as transmissable either (studies show schools are a source of transmission, but that's largely 15+ yro teenages AFAICT). Transmission in necessarily vaccinated very young children won't be as much of an issue. Secondly, measles is much more infectious. People that come in close contact with contagious measles cases almost always get infected (90%), whereas with covid there are clearly many cases in which people get lucky. Over the course of the cov19 disease it may be likely you'll infect people, but each short exposure by itself is a fairly low risk; unlike with measles. And that helps, because it means that with measles you'd expect to need a much higher degree of vaccination to achieve herd immunity that with a less contagious virus like cov19. Intuitively: when a case does slip through it's much more likely to explode and infect many others when the virus is measles, than when it's cov-19. Of course, just because it's an easier problem - hopefully - than measles eradication doesn't mean it's achievable. But at least it's plausibly achievable. (There are warning signs too; like animal reservoirs which are a factor for cov-19 but not measles, so it's not all roses.)
folli 6y ago
As a general statement, I have to disagree. Vaccines indeed are close to invincible magic. Maybe only antibiotics are similarly magic.
- tomp 6y ago
  Vaccines are literally just triggering the human immune system. That is the real magic.
- andrewflnr 6y ago
  95% success is not invincible magic. The 85% success rate for MMR cited downthread is definitely not invincible magic. "Close" is highly debatable. They're still a good idea, but let's use honest arguments.
  - xiphias2 6y ago
    95% means that if most of the population is vaccinated, the virus will probably disappear. The magic works not by not getting infected, but by not infecting other people.
    - to11mtm 6y ago
      > 95% means that if most of the population is vaccinated, the virus will probably disappear. The magic works not by not getting infected, but by not infecting other people. This is a good time to note that AFAIK the Pfizer vaccine will not do a whole lot for preventing spread, so much as preventing an infection from breaking out into the disease (i.e. not all people infected with COV-19 wind up with COVID)
      - dragonwriter 6y ago
        > i.e. not all people infected with COV-19 wind up with COVID Nitpicking, but "not all people infected with SARS-CoV-2 wind up with COVID-19". https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...

tachyonbeam 6y ago

I don't think anyone with any amount of scientific background thinks that these first-generation vaccines will eradicate COVID, but IMO the actual data says immunity is likely to be very good and last for 6+ months, probably more. Then, in 2022, we'll get new vaccines that account for new COVID mutations, and we'll make another big dent in the number of cases again.

ksenzee 6y ago
"Eradicate" is a very strong word. We haven't eradicated measles or diphtheria, either. I think everyone would be pretty happy to get covid-19 down to the same incidence as measles.
- emn13 6y ago
  I hope we have a better chance of eradicating covid, than we do measles. A first factor making measles harder to eradicate is that it can strikes fairly early in life, and covid appears to affect young children much less and not to be as transmissable either (studies show schools are a source of transmission, but that's largely 15+ yro teenages AFAICT). Transmission in necessarily vaccinated very young children won't be as much of an issue. Secondly, measles is much more infectious. People that come in close contact with contagious measles cases almost always get infected (90%), whereas with covid there are clearly many cases in which people get lucky. Over the course of the cov19 disease it may be likely you'll infect people, but each short exposure by itself is a fairly low risk; unlike with measles. And that helps, because it means that with measles you'd expect to need a much higher degree of vaccination to achieve herd immunity that with a less contagious virus like cov19. Intuitively: when a case does slip through it's much more likely to explode and infect many others when the virus is measles, than when it's cov-19. Of course, just because it's an easier problem - hopefully - than measles eradication doesn't mean it's achievable. But at least it's plausibly achievable. (There are warning signs too; like animal reservoirs which are a factor for cov-19 but not measles, so it's not all roses.)

folli 6y ago

As a general statement, I have to disagree. Vaccines indeed are close to invincible magic. Maybe only antibiotics are similarly magic.

tomp 6y ago
Vaccines are literally just triggering the human immune system. That is the real magic.
andrewflnr 6y ago
95% success is not invincible magic. The 85% success rate for MMR cited downthread is definitely not invincible magic. "Close" is highly debatable. They're still a good idea, but let's use honest arguments.
- xiphias2 6y ago
  95% means that if most of the population is vaccinated, the virus will probably disappear. The magic works not by not getting infected, but by not infecting other people.
  - to11mtm 6y ago
    > 95% means that if most of the population is vaccinated, the virus will probably disappear. The magic works not by not getting infected, but by not infecting other people. This is a good time to note that AFAIK the Pfizer vaccine will not do a whole lot for preventing spread, so much as preventing an infection from breaking out into the disease (i.e. not all people infected with COV-19 wind up with COVID)
    - dragonwriter 6y ago
      > i.e. not all people infected with COV-19 wind up with COVID Nitpicking, but "not all people infected with SARS-CoV-2 wind up with COVID-19". https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...