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For climate the simulations can at least back tested against the past climate. It's unclear how that can be done for for Covid. There's nothing to test against
by nn3 6y ago
For climate the simulations can at least back tested against the past climate.
It's unclear how that can be done for for Covid. There's nothing to test against because both the virus and the society's reaction is very different.
- cryptica 6y agoBut the back testing is useless because you can just have a lot of models and cherry pick all those models which happen to match historical data. Then each year some of those models are proven wrong and the attention shifts towards models which happened to get it right... And new models are invented constantly. If you have enough models and companies working on them, you will always find a few which just happen to have guessed all the numbers correctly. It's like lottery. Out of millions of people, some people will get all the numbers right.
- nn3 6y agoYes, back testing is not perfect, but it's better than nothing. In the Covid simulation case they have nothing as far as I can tell.