8 ms·

What's the general consensus on when these will start rolling out to the public? I know I can look this up on my own but there's so much conflicting info out t

What's the general consensus on when these will start rolling out to the public? I know I can look this up on my own but there's so much conflicting info out there and things are changing so fast.

pfdietz 6y ago
Late December. Full coverage of the US by June.
- aclindsa 6y ago
  Do you have a source for that?
  - standardUser 6y ago
    A source for one of the claims from Moderna's press release: "By the end of 2020, the Company expects to have approximately 20 million doses of mRNA-1273 ready to ship in the U.S."
    - neuronic 6y ago
      20 million doses are for 10 million people. Everyone needs two shots. Also, having the doses is one thing. Distributing and administering them is another. At least 30% of people will certainly refuse to get vaccinated as well, further complicating things.
      - standardUser 6y ago
        The first wave of vaccines are destined for frontline and high-risk individuals. They may have a different perspective on the vaccine than your Average Joe, and I doubt uptake will be a big concern. I don't think distributing and administering will be difficult since it will be on a limited scale. The later rollout to the general public is where most of the problems may be.
      - aksss 6y ago
        I welcome the vaccine (am a pro-vaxxer), but have no plans to be part of the first wave of recipients. Am fine beta testing games, but not eager to beta test a vaccine. I think this perspective gets lost amongst concerns about anti-vaxxers - I don’t think 30% of the US is anti-vaccine, but >1 are skeptical about being a lab rat for something with a fast-tracked testing phase.
        thatnerdyguy 6y ago
        Except your not beta testing. We had pre-alpha testing (phase I), alpha testing (phase II), and beta testing (phase III) already. We (the US) should've had coordinated national messaging and education of vaccine mechanisms and safety starting the middle of last summer, but that would've required actual national leadership.
        aksss 6y ago
        How much testing is enough before releasing a product to market? Look, I'm sure they've tested. And I'm sure they've done enough to satisfy their regulatory burden. Just saying I'm not going to be the first over the wall - I'll leave that to the eager.
        standardUser 6y ago
        Unless you are a front line worker or are high-risk, you won't be part of the first wave of vaccinations. By the time someone offers you a shot, it will have been give to tens of millions of people over several months (and well over 6 months for the Phase 3 participants).
        aksss 6y ago
        "if [conditions], cautious people will be accommodated systemically." Yes, assumed.
        IAmGraydon 6y ago
        At some point, you have to take a leap of faith. For all you know, it could take 10 years for negative effects to appear. Not being the first in line will tell you nothing that the trial didn’t already tell us, and waiting a year will tell you nothing about side effects in 2, 5, 10 or 20 years. I choose to trust the scientists who understand the science of how these vaccines interact with the body. I would prefer to take a bet on them and be part of the solution rather than believing in some self-formulated risk analysis and remaining part of the problem.
  - bluGill 6y ago
    To some extent we are guessing because nothing is approved. Maybe something "funny" we be found in the data and nothing get approved and we never get a vaccine. Maybe everything goes perfect and we have both vaccines approved by December 1st, with the other following (which currently don't have enough data to apply for approval) in a few days.
- refurb 6y ago
  No way there is full coverage of the US by June. There isn’t enough manufacturing capacity for vaccinate the entire US unless the companies decide to ignore the rest of the world. Pfizer is slated for around 1B doses (500M people treated) next year, or about 10% of the global population. I would estimate all high risk groups (elderly, front line workers) vaccinated by Q2'21. Then a phased roll out based on risk. If you're a healthy young 25 year old, you'll likely be one of the last to be vaccinated.
  - bluGill 6y ago
    Depends on what else gets approved. Best case is both of these are approved this year, with a couple others by the end of January. If that best case happens we could see countries opening up starting in March, with full opening up this summer.
  - pfdietz 6y ago
    https://www.businessinsider.com/moderna-ceo-coronavirus-vaccine-timeline-when-will-i-get-a-shot-2020-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/moderna-ceo-coronavirus-vacc... "Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel told Business Insider that a coronavirus vaccine would be available to any American adult who wanted one by June."
peter303 6y ago
FDA requires two months of safety data. Everyone got second dose by Nov 1. Pfizer is about a week faster.

What's the general consensus on when these will start rolling out to the public? I know I can look this up on my own but there's so much conflicting info out there and things are changing so fast.

pfdietz 6y ago

Late December. Full coverage of the US by June.

aclindsa 6y ago
Do you have a source for that?
- standardUser 6y ago
  A source for one of the claims from Moderna's press release: "By the end of 2020, the Company expects to have approximately 20 million doses of mRNA-1273 ready to ship in the U.S."
  - neuronic 6y ago
    20 million doses are for 10 million people. Everyone needs two shots. Also, having the doses is one thing. Distributing and administering them is another. At least 30% of people will certainly refuse to get vaccinated as well, further complicating things.
    - standardUser 6y ago
      The first wave of vaccines are destined for frontline and high-risk individuals. They may have a different perspective on the vaccine than your Average Joe, and I doubt uptake will be a big concern. I don't think distributing and administering will be difficult since it will be on a limited scale. The later rollout to the general public is where most of the problems may be.
    - aksss 6y ago
      I welcome the vaccine (am a pro-vaxxer), but have no plans to be part of the first wave of recipients. Am fine beta testing games, but not eager to beta test a vaccine. I think this perspective gets lost amongst concerns about anti-vaxxers - I don’t think 30% of the US is anti-vaccine, but >1 are skeptical about being a lab rat for something with a fast-tracked testing phase.
      - thatnerdyguy 6y ago
        Except your not beta testing. We had pre-alpha testing (phase I), alpha testing (phase II), and beta testing (phase III) already. We (the US) should've had coordinated national messaging and education of vaccine mechanisms and safety starting the middle of last summer, but that would've required actual national leadership.
        aksss 6y ago
        How much testing is enough before releasing a product to market? Look, I'm sure they've tested. And I'm sure they've done enough to satisfy their regulatory burden. Just saying I'm not going to be the first over the wall - I'll leave that to the eager.
        standardUser 6y ago
        Unless you are a front line worker or are high-risk, you won't be part of the first wave of vaccinations. By the time someone offers you a shot, it will have been give to tens of millions of people over several months (and well over 6 months for the Phase 3 participants).
        aksss 6y ago
        "if [conditions], cautious people will be accommodated systemically." Yes, assumed.
        IAmGraydon 6y ago
        At some point, you have to take a leap of faith. For all you know, it could take 10 years for negative effects to appear. Not being the first in line will tell you nothing that the trial didn’t already tell us, and waiting a year will tell you nothing about side effects in 2, 5, 10 or 20 years. I choose to trust the scientists who understand the science of how these vaccines interact with the body. I would prefer to take a bet on them and be part of the solution rather than believing in some self-formulated risk analysis and remaining part of the problem.
- bluGill 6y ago
  To some extent we are guessing because nothing is approved. Maybe something "funny" we be found in the data and nothing get approved and we never get a vaccine. Maybe everything goes perfect and we have both vaccines approved by December 1st, with the other following (which currently don't have enough data to apply for approval) in a few days.
refurb 6y ago
No way there is full coverage of the US by June. There isn’t enough manufacturing capacity for vaccinate the entire US unless the companies decide to ignore the rest of the world. Pfizer is slated for around 1B doses (500M people treated) next year, or about 10% of the global population. I would estimate all high risk groups (elderly, front line workers) vaccinated by Q2'21. Then a phased roll out based on risk. If you're a healthy young 25 year old, you'll likely be one of the last to be vaccinated.
- bluGill 6y ago
  Depends on what else gets approved. Best case is both of these are approved this year, with a couple others by the end of January. If that best case happens we could see countries opening up starting in March, with full opening up this summer.
- pfdietz 6y ago
  https://www.businessinsider.com/moderna-ceo-coronavirus-vaccine-timeline-when-will-i-get-a-shot-2020-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/moderna-ceo-coronavirus-vacc... "Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel told Business Insider that a coronavirus vaccine would be available to any American adult who wanted one by June."

peter303 6y ago

FDA requires two months of safety data. Everyone got second dose by Nov 1. Pfizer is about a week faster.