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She says: "when I make predictions, instead of casting them abstractly into the air, I’ll post them here: einfall.slinkset.com. And I won’t delete my predictio
by snewe 18y ago
She says:
"when I make predictions, instead of casting them abstractly into the air, I’ll post them here: einfall.slinkset.com. And I won’t delete my predictions — if they turn out wrong, I’ll keep them there, as permanent reminders to learn from."
Here is the strategy that I recommend: predict less often and predict things that are easy to predict. Unfortunately, "big" predictions get you web traffic and short-term attention. When the outcome reveals itself, the vast majority of people forget that you made a prediction. So I don't think this is that big of a move. Now, if you put money behind it...
- DaniFong 18y agoMost of these predictions are those I've made long before, I just hadn't nailed down the specifics. So my rate of prediction hasn't quite settled yet. And the predictions are likely to arise from things that I think about, which, more often than not, are fairly 'big' in nature. But I agree that smaller, more specific, short term predictions are valid and helpful too.