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Isn't this essentially triggering another arms race? The US finding a way to way counteract MAD means that the nukes China, Russia, etc have are all useless in

by erklik 6y ago

Isn't this essentially triggering another arms race? The US finding a way to way counteract MAD means that the nukes China, Russia, etc have are all useless in an attack against US meaning now there is an arms race to develop something that can fight against the "Brilliant Pebbles" which will the force the US to come up with something that fights against that and so on. MAD has allowed for peace in our time. Yes, the world has problems but its significantly better now than before. Maybe its best to remain in this condition.

dkdk8283 6y ago
I think we’ve always been in an arms race. Sometimes it’s money and not lives or power but we’re always struggling to one up everyone else.
- erklik 6y ago
  Sure. But we aren't building more nukes. Breaking MAD means breaking the one fundamental principle/fact that has truly meant peace for quite a few years now. If we could maintain or improve this level so that wars are much less commonplace, that might just mean that we as a species might be able to move on from this petty warfare and actually work together.
  - garmaine 6y ago
    Uh, we are: https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-arsenal/2020/02/04/trumps-new-nuclear-weapon-has-been-deployed/ https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-arsenal/2020/02/04/t...
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      Not really. These are older warheads with a dialed-down yield. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W76 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W76
m_mueller 6y ago
If orbit gets weoponized to counter ICBMs it just sounds to me like midrange missiles from subs and allied countries are going to have a rennaissance. Basically the clock is going to reset back to the 60s. Then, ICBMs are probably going to get their own defenses against pebbles so you'd need more and more of those, until orbit is so full that space becomes inaccessible (Kessler syndrome).
ekianjo 6y ago
> Isn't this essentially triggering another arms race Where did you get the impression that arms races ever stop?
credit_guy 6y ago
An arms race is a problem if it drains the resources of both participants. But the situation is so unequal here that this "arms race" would be more akin to a checkmate in one. Imagine this arms race would force both Russia and the US to invest $100BN more annualy in nuclear weapons. That would be economically devastating for Russia (who has a current defense budget of about $65 BN), and it would barely register for the US, with a current defense spending of $700 BN.

by erklik 6y ago

dkdk8283 6y ago

I think we’ve always been in an arms race. Sometimes it’s money and not lives or power but we’re always struggling to one up everyone else.

erklik 6y ago
Sure. But we aren't building more nukes. Breaking MAD means breaking the one fundamental principle/fact that has truly meant peace for quite a few years now. If we could maintain or improve this level so that wars are much less commonplace, that might just mean that we as a species might be able to move on from this petty warfare and actually work together.
- garmaine 6y ago
  Uh, we are: https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-arsenal/2020/02/04/trumps-new-nuclear-weapon-has-been-deployed/ https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-arsenal/2020/02/04/t...
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    Not really. These are older warheads with a dialed-down yield. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W76 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W76

m_mueller 6y ago

If orbit gets weoponized to counter ICBMs it just sounds to me like midrange missiles from subs and allied countries are going to have a rennaissance. Basically the clock is going to reset back to the 60s. Then, ICBMs are probably going to get their own defenses against pebbles so you'd need more and more of those, until orbit is so full that space becomes inaccessible (Kessler syndrome).

ekianjo 6y ago

> Isn't this essentially triggering another arms race Where did you get the impression that arms races ever stop?

credit_guy 6y ago

An arms race is a problem if it drains the resources of both participants. But the situation is so unequal here that this "arms race" would be more akin to a checkmate in one. Imagine this arms race would force both Russia and the US to invest $100BN more annualy in nuclear weapons. That would be economically devastating for Russia (who has a current defense budget of about $65 BN), and it would barely register for the US, with a current defense spending of $700 BN.