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I have a contrarian view on this. I believe that China is heading to an economic collapse during this decade. The Chinese economy is effectively a huge bubble

I have a contrarian view on this. I believe that China is heading to an economic collapse during this decade. The Chinese economy is effectively a huge bubble fed by monetary stimulus, and it doesn't seem to be sustaining its historical growth since the 2010's -- although nobody really knows what's going on there, given that the CCP discloses information that favors whatever narrative they want. In any case, it may quite well happen that Covid has been accelerating the Chinese economy's demise. The CCP is very aware that the country is in trouble, and this is evidenced on how bellicose they're getting in the last few years, as a matter of desperation. On the top of that, the Chinese population is increasingly becoming aware of the corruption in its government. The number of conflicts between the population and the CCP has progressively been escalating.

cambalache 6y ago
> I believe that China is heading to an economic collapse during this decade. This has been said during the last 30 years at the very least. It's not going to happen, white Americans must accept that they will not longer be rulers of this planet.
rmah 6y ago
You do realize that some people have been saying almost exactly what you said since the late 1990's, right? Sort of like some folks have been predicting the collapse of the US economy due to Federal Reserve policy for the last half century. Either way, the economy of china is structurally quite different from the US or EU. The role of public (and some "private") debt there is different. Which is not to say that they don't have problems -- they have lots of problems. But saying "the Chinese economy is effectively a huge bubble fed by monetary stimulus" is just wrong. As for "increasingly becoming aware of the corruption in its government"... that's not really true simply because everyone has been aware of it for literally a thousand years. The corruption is sort of background noise there, it is essentially expected. The question most people ask is instead more like, "is there more or less corruption now?" "is the corruption more or less harmful?" Finally, I don't know where you're getting the idea that the "the number of conflicts between the population and the PCC has progressively been escalating". If anything, the gov of china is more respected inside China now than ever before. I suspect it's mostly because of their aggressive response to covid. Which they never tire of letting everyone in China know about. Short term, at least, the CCP's power inside China is quite secure. Long term, who knows.

cambalache 6y ago

> I believe that China is heading to an economic collapse during this decade. This has been said during the last 30 years at the very least. It's not going to happen, white Americans must accept that they will not longer be rulers of this planet.

rmah 6y ago

You do realize that some people have been saying almost exactly what you said since the late 1990's, right? Sort of like some folks have been predicting the collapse of the US economy due to Federal Reserve policy for the last half century. Either way, the economy of china is structurally quite different from the US or EU. The role of public (and some "private") debt there is different. Which is not to say that they don't have problems -- they have lots of problems. But saying "the Chinese economy is effectively a huge bubble fed by monetary stimulus" is just wrong. As for "increasingly becoming aware of the corruption in its government"... that's not really true simply because everyone has been aware of it for literally a thousand years. The corruption is sort of background noise there, it is essentially expected. The question most people ask is instead more like, "is there more or less corruption now?" "is the corruption more or less harmful?" Finally, I don't know where you're getting the idea that the "the number of conflicts between the population and the PCC has progressively been escalating". If anything, the gov of china is more respected inside China now than ever before. I suspect it's mostly because of their aggressive response to covid. Which they never tire of letting everyone in China know about. Short term, at least, the CCP's power inside China is quite secure. Long term, who knows.