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Every one of these economies has a rapidly aging population that desperately needs a positive balance of trade and export to maintain GDP growth. Every one of t
by CountSessine 6y ago
Every one of these economies has a rapidly aging population that desperately needs a positive balance of trade and export to maintain GDP growth. Every one of them would give up this agreement in a second for untariffed access to the US consumer market, which none of them have anymore.
- curiousgal 6y agoGiven the US' attack on immigration, it too will have a rapidly aging population.
- CountSessine 6y agoI know - the irony! Perhaps the only reason that the US has so many millennials is that so many people come to the US undocumented, skirting the dumpster-fire immigration and visa system. Without those millennials, the US would be in the same pickle.
- danbolt 6y agoCertainly immigration and not to do with being the children of baby boomers!
- viraptor 6y agoUS has estimated 11M of unauthorised people. Let's say 25-34yo are millennials - that's 3M of them. Same age bracket has 45M US residents. I'm not sure the 3M are making that much of a difference. (Although it's higher than I expected)
- CountSessine 6y agoThat’s very interesting - thanks for looking up the numbers. I’ve been curious about this for some time. I guess we need to look elsewhere for our explanation.
- fmajid 6y agoNet immigration to the US from Mexico has been effectively zero since 2008.
- catmanjan 6y agoAs an Australian, immigration does not fix aging population, it just delays it...
- ketzo 6y agoI mean, when it comes to problems of age, is there anything to do other than delay?
- IronRanger 6y agoSub-replacement fertility is a factor of housing costs. Immigration drives down wages, and increases housing costs, making housing less affordable. All that immigration serves to accomplish is population replacement.
- xienze 6y ago> it too will have a rapidly aging population. I mean the US government could do things like provide lots of incentives for its citizens to reproduce but, nah, too difficult. Just import the entire third world, things will work out fine.
- crocodiletears 6y agoCould adopt policies that encouraged reproduction at or above the replacement rate. Make an effort to reframe childrearing as a social, moral, and individual good. Doubtful it'll happen, but still a possibility.
- j8hn 6y agoI'm curious where the US ranks on immigration worldwide on their attack on immigration.
- nine_zeros 6y agoThe number 1 thing for ALL these countries is access to resources that they don't have. The most important among them is oil. The only way to buy oil is dollars. That's the reason their economy is set up to export to America. The minute oil producers start accepting other currencies (which is what trade blocs such as this could accomplish) or they reduce their dependence on oil (which is what Chinese companies are offering for cheap), these countries will not even try to export to North America because population-wise, America can never have as many consumers as Asia and Africa. Our wealth in America is only because we are the reserve currency. We are not producing goods and services of the future any longer.
- threeseed 6y ago> We are not producing goods and services of the future any longer. Not sure what you are talking about here. Majority of globally successful companies still come from the US and that isn't changing anytime soon.
- nine_zeros 6y agoThey were "global" before the last 4 years. That won't last without constant nurturing. You should look at China's stock market and what they are able to achieve without printing trillions like the US just did. And we are still not out of covid.
- CountSessine 6y agoNobody has any faith in the Chinese stock market and the ability of the market to find efficient prices. The entire Chinese banking system is essentially bankrupt. Chinese companies are forced to accept suboptimal business decisions to further CCP goals. In spite of the incredible inventiveness of the Chinese people, companies in China outside of PCB-level board assembly are weak and uncompetitive, having been the beneficiaries of government protectionism (how many countries use Baidu for example). Except for a video-sharing website for teenage girls. And a network switch manufacturer that is subsidized and owned by the government. And the population is getting old before it gets rich, with no social safety net. What does fiat currency even mean in a closed society? Is China solvent or not? What can we say about government debt when private banks are forced to make bad loans at the government’s request? And what can lenders expect back when the government doesn’t respect private property?
- mobattah 6y agoUnder the Donald Trump administration, the US receded from its position of total global hegemony. This backtrack has massively hurt the United States.
- shostack 6y agoWhich raises the question of how much that may have been the point.
- tengbretson 6y agoWhen you hate Trump so much that you start defending American imperialism.
- refurb 6y agoAre you are arguing ending US hegemony is bad?
- 2muchcoffeeman 6y agoI don’t know why this is being downvoted. My feeling is that globally, during the Trump administration, allies started making alternate plans. Merkel even said after the NATO meeting, that Europe can no longer rely on foreign partners. In response to Trumps actions and the UK leaving the EU.
- CountSessine 6y agoI agree - but what’s in it for the US? NATO existed to fight off global communism by keeping the Soviet Union out of Western Europe. This was directly in the US national interest because the US didn’t want to face a pan-Eurasian communist front in a future war. What does NATO do anymore? The US, as the only global superpower with a homeland separated from any potential, conceivable enemy by the two biggest oceans in the world, is largely invulnerable to invasion. And without an enemy with an energizing ideology behind it, what is anyone allied against?