3 ms·

The balance of power is shifting.

by danaos 6y ago

nemo44x 6y ago
With Biden elected I’ll be interested in seeing if the USA rejoins the TPP agreement. It was negotiated under Obama and Biden was a supporter at the time. Of course Congress is the tricky part. Trump pulled the USA out as he was essentially a Democrat in terms of trade protectionism - a very odd position for a Republican. Congress is split but I could see the Republican Senate passing it. The question is will enough a Democrats in the House agree to it? Likely a very divisive issue between the Liberal (maybe yes) and Progressive (no) sides.
- moralsupply 6y ago
  I'm not taking sides here, and this comment is not supposed to start a flame war, but let's remember that Biden is not confirmed as the president yet.
- karmasimida 6y ago
  TPP is DOA. It has been demonized by the conservatives, or anti-globalists from both parties, here in US. With PA/WI/MI being the king maker in past 2 elections in US, I dare any president would go that far to agonize the voters in those states, even though it might be strategically right choice to stabilize US's influence in Asia.
  - nemo44x 6y ago
    That a great point about WI/PA/MI - NAFTA was not great for that region in particular. I do wonder if there’s enough of a bi-partisan coalition (east coast wealthy liberals, west coast states that would benefit, Texas conservatives, etc) to push it. But you’re right that both sides see those states as strategically important and it’s doubtful Biden would want to approve it since that could be poison next election.
  - j8hn 6y ago
    Has it been demonized the by conservatives? This is from the 2015 session where TPP fast track was debated. The average Republican member received $19,673.28 from corporate TPP supporters. The average Democrat received $9,689.23 from those same donors. Source: https://thenewamerican.com/corporations-bribe-senators-to-vote-for-tpp-fast-track/ https://thenewamerican.com/corporations-bribe-senators-to-vo...
downrightmike 6y ago
Now they just have to consume as much as America, and we'll see.
- rmah 6y ago
  They do. China now has a consumer market (measured through retail sales volume) that is just a bit larger than the USA. In 2019, China had apx $6.4T in retail sales vs the US at $6.0T. Retail sales for 2020 are expected to be flat in China and down sharply in the USA. That's right, the largest consumer nation in the world is now China. The Chinese certainly don't consume as much per person as Americans... but they probably wish they could.
- cambalache 6y ago
  Dont need to. A China consuming half as much as America (per capita) would possibly mean a 2X economy.

The balance of power is shifting.

by danaos 6y ago

The balance of power is shifting.

With Biden elected I’ll be interested in seeing if the USA rejoins the TPP agreement. It was negotiated under Obama and Biden was a supporter at the time. Of course Congress is the tricky part. Trump pulled the USA out as he was essentially a Democrat in terms of trade protectionism - a very odd position for a Republican. Congress is split but I could see the Republican Senate passing it. The question is will enough a Democrats in the House agree to it? Likely a very divisive issue between the Liberal (maybe yes) and Progressive (no) sides.

moralsupply 6y ago
I'm not taking sides here, and this comment is not supposed to start a flame war, but let's remember that Biden is not confirmed as the president yet.
karmasimida 6y ago
TPP is DOA. It has been demonized by the conservatives, or anti-globalists from both parties, here in US. With PA/WI/MI being the king maker in past 2 elections in US, I dare any president would go that far to agonize the voters in those states, even though it might be strategically right choice to stabilize US's influence in Asia.
- nemo44x 6y ago
  That a great point about WI/PA/MI - NAFTA was not great for that region in particular. I do wonder if there’s enough of a bi-partisan coalition (east coast wealthy liberals, west coast states that would benefit, Texas conservatives, etc) to push it. But you’re right that both sides see those states as strategically important and it’s doubtful Biden would want to approve it since that could be poison next election.
- j8hn 6y ago
  Has it been demonized the by conservatives? This is from the 2015 session where TPP fast track was debated. The average Republican member received $19,673.28 from corporate TPP supporters. The average Democrat received $9,689.23 from those same donors. Source: https://thenewamerican.com/corporations-bribe-senators-to-vote-for-tpp-fast-track/ https://thenewamerican.com/corporations-bribe-senators-to-vo...

downrightmike 6y ago

Now they just have to consume as much as America, and we'll see.

rmah 6y ago
They do. China now has a consumer market (measured through retail sales volume) that is just a bit larger than the USA. In 2019, China had apx $6.4T in retail sales vs the US at $6.0T. Retail sales for 2020 are expected to be flat in China and down sharply in the USA. That's right, the largest consumer nation in the world is now China. The Chinese certainly don't consume as much per person as Americans... but they probably wish they could.
cambalache 6y ago
Dont need to. A China consuming half as much as America (per capita) would possibly mean a 2X economy.