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The internet is rife with blogs (and now podcasts) about what can be a billion dollar startup ideas. It just depends on where someone sees an opportunity and ex

The internet is rife with blogs (and now podcasts) about what can be a billion dollar startup ideas. It just depends on where someone sees an opportunity and exploits it. (not as easy, but thats about the crux of it) I wanted to touch upon the other thing Garry Tan mentioned when he said that reason people try the same ideas is because "desire is mimetic". We want what other people want. Same ideas especially ones which have already been successful. And he cites examples like Podcasts, Travel plans, and local events app. Out of the three mentioned, local events app and travel plans apps have been tried multiple times but never been successful. Its something when you ask casual travelers what they would want in a travel app and travel planning help is their first pick and local events and guidance is their second pick. Most of these ideas fold because travel is very cold market for an investor and most dont want to invest. Also, quite a few folks now pick ideas based on what is a hot market ergo what is being funded, and quite a few times its a variant or a rendition of what is already successful (or something a success in one vertical can be tried in another). That being said, I do think that you need to have the experiences of the people you are building the product for. It may or may not be the same experience as others.

mushufasa 6y ago
> Most of these ideas fold because travel is very cold market for an investor and most dont want to invest. This isn't true. For example, AirBnB has plenty of funding. Investors as the constraint currently happens for capital-intensive opportunities, like nuclear fusion. There's plenty of investors for software as a service. There are lots of other reasons why there aren't more "apps for x." The main barrier for any app is that it has to improve on the alternative. In this case, tech services like AirBnB and TripAdvisor are competing with DIY search, or simply talking to a friend or travel consultant and having a human conversation.
- ethbr0 6y ago
  The killer feature that AirBnB cracked was scaling. Travel advice inherently doesn't scale -- you saw it with Frommers et al. pre-web. High investment to develop content, constant need to update, and your success cannibalizes your own business. The sorts of people who want travel advice are typically not the sort who want 1,000 other jackass Americans (said as a travelling American) showing up at "that tiny gem of a restaurant." I'd say Yelp is the most useful travel-related app, precisely because they targeted a different market: what you want now, here (not the best in the world).
  - cutler 6y ago
    > The killer feature that AirBnB cracked was scaling. And with Ruby on Rails that's nothing short of high magic.
    - ethbr0 6y ago
      Ha! I was referring more to curation-scaling though. E.g. what would have formerly been termed a travel journalist / editor.
- tmilard 6y ago
  AirB&B was not easyly funded at first. It seemed very very foolish at the time to rent your place to a stranger. The did revolutionis the touristic rental market, and as for any revolution, it was very very difficult at the begining to have followers ( finance, customers, accomodations).
  - est31 6y ago
    > AirB&B was not easyly funded at first More on the early history of the company: https://medium.com/@jasper_ribbers/the-airbnb-founder-story-from-selling-cereal-to-a-25b-company-244aeec18bc8 https://medium.com/@jasper_ribbers/the-airbnb-founder-story-...
- ankit219 6y ago
  I said that based on experience as a travel entrepreneur. There is a sentiment in investors about travel being a cold market, and many arent interested outright(regardless of traction). Airbnb was an exception given they had good people backing them (PG et al) just based on team and they competed in a different segment and that they had enough funds to actually show repeats and retention (something many others lack). It did spawn a few clones all over which got funded, but folded very early. This indeed helped Airbnb in later rounds as they virtually had no competition. > There's plenty of investors for software as a service. True when the Gross Margins are 60-80% and not about 5-10% as in case of travel. > tech services like AirBnB and TripAdvisor are competing with DIY search Travel planning is an experience in itself, and hacking those prices/places gives a dopamine hit which no app can compensate for imo. People like to try out the app and use it once, but the retention for these apps are low. Users tend to forget about these apps next time they travel.

mushufasa 6y ago

> Most of these ideas fold because travel is very cold market for an investor and most dont want to invest. This isn't true. For example, AirBnB has plenty of funding. Investors as the constraint currently happens for capital-intensive opportunities, like nuclear fusion. There's plenty of investors for software as a service. There are lots of other reasons why there aren't more "apps for x." The main barrier for any app is that it has to improve on the alternative. In this case, tech services like AirBnB and TripAdvisor are competing with DIY search, or simply talking to a friend or travel consultant and having a human conversation.

ethbr0 6y ago
The killer feature that AirBnB cracked was scaling. Travel advice inherently doesn't scale -- you saw it with Frommers et al. pre-web. High investment to develop content, constant need to update, and your success cannibalizes your own business. The sorts of people who want travel advice are typically not the sort who want 1,000 other jackass Americans (said as a travelling American) showing up at "that tiny gem of a restaurant." I'd say Yelp is the most useful travel-related app, precisely because they targeted a different market: what you want now, here (not the best in the world).
- cutler 6y ago
  > The killer feature that AirBnB cracked was scaling. And with Ruby on Rails that's nothing short of high magic.
  - ethbr0 6y ago
    Ha! I was referring more to curation-scaling though. E.g. what would have formerly been termed a travel journalist / editor.
tmilard 6y ago
AirB&B was not easyly funded at first. It seemed very very foolish at the time to rent your place to a stranger. The did revolutionis the touristic rental market, and as for any revolution, it was very very difficult at the begining to have followers ( finance, customers, accomodations).
- est31 6y ago
  > AirB&B was not easyly funded at first More on the early history of the company: https://medium.com/@jasper_ribbers/the-airbnb-founder-story-from-selling-cereal-to-a-25b-company-244aeec18bc8 https://medium.com/@jasper_ribbers/the-airbnb-founder-story-...
ankit219 6y ago
I said that based on experience as a travel entrepreneur. There is a sentiment in investors about travel being a cold market, and many arent interested outright(regardless of traction). Airbnb was an exception given they had good people backing them (PG et al) just based on team and they competed in a different segment and that they had enough funds to actually show repeats and retention (something many others lack). It did spawn a few clones all over which got funded, but folded very early. This indeed helped Airbnb in later rounds as they virtually had no competition. > There's plenty of investors for software as a service. True when the Gross Margins are 60-80% and not about 5-10% as in case of travel. > tech services like AirBnB and TripAdvisor are competing with DIY search Travel planning is an experience in itself, and hacking those prices/places gives a dopamine hit which no app can compensate for imo. People like to try out the app and use it once, but the retention for these apps are low. Users tend to forget about these apps next time they travel.