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>I can't imagine that the UK government and the private sector will get their act together and somehow, in 9 years, the infrastructure will be amazing, and they

by slg 6y ago

>I can't imagine that the UK government and the private sector will get their act together and somehow, in 9 years, the infrastructure will be amazing, and they will find answers to questions like how do you charge at an apartment or a house with no dedicated parking space. I'm eagerly awaiting to hear about these solutions. They have much longer than 9 years to get the infrastructure right. The average car age in the US is roughly 12 years old. I imagine is is roughly the same in the UK. That means even if they stop selling new ICE cars in 2030 the average car might still be an ICE into the 2040s. Assuming no further restrictions it probably wouldn't be until the 2050s that it would become truly difficult to find a used ICE car. Obviously the UK would need to improve in the meantime, but they would basically have 30 years to get their EV infrastructure into the position it works for every car owner.

bobthepanda 6y ago
> They have much longer than 9 years to get the infrastructure right. No, these seem like pretty solid questions to ask if you are going to be forced to buy an electric car, not just if society is going to go all electric. Unless we're trying to convince people to just stop buying cars altogether in 2030.
- slg 6y ago
  >if you are going to be forced to buy an electric car, That was my point. You aren't going to be forced to buy an EV. The used market for ICE vehicles can be expected to be robust for some 15-20 years after the ban on new cars goes into effect.
  - bobthepanda 6y ago
    Being forced to buy an old ICE car rather than a new one is still being forced to do something. Newer cars will have improvements in other things besides motive power, like safety features. Are we going to force people who are not in a situation where EVs are usable, to forgo safety measures as well?
    - slg 6y ago
      No one is being "forced" to do anything. You want an ICE car, you can keep your ICE car or buy another used one. I am sure when it comes to it, there will also be a thriving niche market to keep these cars roadworthy for even longer than the normal 15-20 year lifespan. That also probably includes aftermarket modifications to make the cars safer. I'm also sure at some point someone somewhere might be inconvenienced by decisions like this, but we are going to have to just accept that if we want to combat climate change. Maybe you object to it for a political or ideological reason. However it doesn't make sense to blame that objection on the lack of currently existing infrastructure when it would be 20-30 years before we truly need that level of infrastructure.
      - bobthepanda 6y ago
        > when it would be 20-30 years before we truly need that level of infrastructure. I don't agree. Where I currently live, there are often waitlists for rationed time at workplace charging spots. The person who you initially responded to also has massive issues charging anywhere outside the home. We are already at a point where electric infrastructure is woefully inadequate to deal with the influx of EVs in the current market, which isn't all that EV friendly; this will be catastrophic once all new cars are required to be EV-friendly. The correct choice to combat climate change would be to actually make credible, large investments in national EV charging networks, not pooh pooh the issue and tell motorists to eat cake.
        slg 6y ago
        You are miscategorizing my comment. From my first post: >Obviously the UK would need to improve in the meantime, but they would basically have 30 years to get their EV infrastructure into the position it works for every car owner. I acknowledge it needs to improve. However conversion of infrastructure doesn't need to be completed by 2030. A gradual increase in infrastructure over the next 20-30 years can get the job done and is eminently doable.
        bobthepanda 6y ago
Arnt 6y ago
You're wrong about the 12 years — that's the average age at retirement, so the average car on the roads is six years old, not 12. But I think you're right about the bigger issue — Norway's further along the road, and has been able to fix the infrastructure enough that people don't complain much, and has done so in much less than those 30 years. There are complaints, e.g. about building coops that won't let people install chargers in shared garages.
- slg 6y ago
  >You're wrong about the 12 years — that's the average age at retirement, so the average car on the roads is six years old, not 12. Here is my source[1]. Average age for vehicles in operation is 11.9 years. 1 in 4 cars are at least 16 years old. Do you have a source on your claims? [1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/25percent-of-cars-in-us-are-at-least-sixteen-years-old----record-high.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/25percent-of-cars-in-us-are-...
  - dagw 6y ago
    "in 1994, 6.3 per cent of cars on the road were over 13 years of age...(in 2019) the percentage of vehicles over this age is 19 per cent." "according to the research, the average age of all cars on UK roads has increased from 6.7 years in 1994 to 8.3 years in 2019." https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-8739771/Britons-keeping-cars-longer-says-new-report.html https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-8739771/Bri... So the average car is getting older, but still far from 12 years.
  - Arnt 6y ago
    Total cars on the road divided by new car sales. I seem to find useful pages only in German now (I am in Germany), which I expect wouldn't help you much, but statista.com and wikipedia.org has both, and if you wade through all the irrelevant graphs on statista you'll typically see that total/new is in the low teens for western countries (I checked three now, e.g. 47m/3.4m for .de, almost 14y lifetime or 7y average age).

by slg 6y ago

bobthepanda 6y ago

> They have much longer than 9 years to get the infrastructure right. No, these seem like pretty solid questions to ask if you are going to be forced to buy an electric car, not just if society is going to go all electric. Unless we're trying to convince people to just stop buying cars altogether in 2030.

slg 6y ago
>if you are going to be forced to buy an electric car, That was my point. You aren't going to be forced to buy an EV. The used market for ICE vehicles can be expected to be robust for some 15-20 years after the ban on new cars goes into effect.
- bobthepanda 6y ago
  Being forced to buy an old ICE car rather than a new one is still being forced to do something. Newer cars will have improvements in other things besides motive power, like safety features. Are we going to force people who are not in a situation where EVs are usable, to forgo safety measures as well?
  - slg 6y ago
    No one is being "forced" to do anything. You want an ICE car, you can keep your ICE car or buy another used one. I am sure when it comes to it, there will also be a thriving niche market to keep these cars roadworthy for even longer than the normal 15-20 year lifespan. That also probably includes aftermarket modifications to make the cars safer. I'm also sure at some point someone somewhere might be inconvenienced by decisions like this, but we are going to have to just accept that if we want to combat climate change. Maybe you object to it for a political or ideological reason. However it doesn't make sense to blame that objection on the lack of currently existing infrastructure when it would be 20-30 years before we truly need that level of infrastructure.
    - bobthepanda 6y ago
      > when it would be 20-30 years before we truly need that level of infrastructure. I don't agree. Where I currently live, there are often waitlists for rationed time at workplace charging spots. The person who you initially responded to also has massive issues charging anywhere outside the home. We are already at a point where electric infrastructure is woefully inadequate to deal with the influx of EVs in the current market, which isn't all that EV friendly; this will be catastrophic once all new cars are required to be EV-friendly. The correct choice to combat climate change would be to actually make credible, large investments in national EV charging networks, not pooh pooh the issue and tell motorists to eat cake.
      - slg 6y ago
        You are miscategorizing my comment. From my first post: >Obviously the UK would need to improve in the meantime, but they would basically have 30 years to get their EV infrastructure into the position it works for every car owner. I acknowledge it needs to improve. However conversion of infrastructure doesn't need to be completed by 2030. A gradual increase in infrastructure over the next 20-30 years can get the job done and is eminently doable.
        bobthepanda 6y ago

Arnt 6y ago

You're wrong about the 12 years — that's the average age at retirement, so the average car on the roads is six years old, not 12. But I think you're right about the bigger issue — Norway's further along the road, and has been able to fix the infrastructure enough that people don't complain much, and has done so in much less than those 30 years. There are complaints, e.g. about building coops that won't let people install chargers in shared garages.

slg 6y ago
>You're wrong about the 12 years — that's the average age at retirement, so the average car on the roads is six years old, not 12. Here is my source[1]. Average age for vehicles in operation is 11.9 years. 1 in 4 cars are at least 16 years old. Do you have a source on your claims? [1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/25percent-of-cars-in-us-are-at-least-sixteen-years-old----record-high.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/25percent-of-cars-in-us-are-...
- dagw 6y ago
  "in 1994, 6.3 per cent of cars on the road were over 13 years of age...(in 2019) the percentage of vehicles over this age is 19 per cent." "according to the research, the average age of all cars on UK roads has increased from 6.7 years in 1994 to 8.3 years in 2019." https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-8739771/Britons-keeping-cars-longer-says-new-report.html https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-8739771/Bri... So the average car is getting older, but still far from 12 years.
- Arnt 6y ago
  Total cars on the road divided by new car sales. I seem to find useful pages only in German now (I am in Germany), which I expect wouldn't help you much, but statista.com and wikipedia.org has both, and if you wade through all the irrelevant graphs on statista you'll typically see that total/new is in the low teens for western countries (I checked three now, e.g. 47m/3.4m for .de, almost 14y lifetime or 7y average age).