7 ms·

Used ICE cars will very quickly go up in price making them less affordable for the poorer classes.

speedgoose 6y ago
I would guess most people will not buy an used ICE car in 10 years when they can also buy an used electric car. The people into ICE engine sure, but they are not that many and rarely buying economical ICE cars.
- Hamuko 6y ago
  I doubt the range issues with EVs are fixed in 10 years.
  - speedgoose 6y ago
    In UK? It's a small island. It's already fixed unless you buy a city car.
    - Hamuko 6y ago
      It's not that small.
      - speedgoose 6y ago
        True. I checked a better route planner, a great app to plan electric vehicles trips, and driving from Brighton to Glasgow today in 2020 is 7h10m of driving and 36m of charging with a tesla model 3. Let's round up to 1h of charging. I don't think it is a problem today, and even less in 10 years with better cars and a bigger charging network. Sure you may lose some time because you will have slightly longer breaks, but it's fine in my opinion and don't forget that electricity is cheaper than gaz (unless you charge to 100% on Ionity without using a car from a Ionity constructor).
        Hamuko 6y ago
        >driving from Brighton to Glasgow today in 2020 is 7h10m of driving and 36m of charging with a tesla model 3 Is that under the assumption that it's a warm day?
        speedgoose 6y ago
        It was with 10°C. I put -10°C and it takes 8 minutes longer according to the app.
        maccard 6y ago
        > Sure you may lose some time because you will have slightly longer breaks, Unless you've got two drivers, a 7 hour trip likely requires more than a 35 minute stop to eat, and rest anyway.
    - olivermarks 6y ago
      Traffic is very congested and slow in the UK, what looks like a short trip can take hours
      - davidhbolton 6y ago
        Uncontrolled mass migration (Thanks Tony Blair) under New Labour added five million people over a ten year period. Guess what, many drive cars. So yes, it has affected transport.
        bichiliad 6y ago
        When I see people blame more drivers for traffic, the only culprit I can see is a failure to extend public transit accordingly. A huge number of people drive in New York, for example, for lack of a better alternative, not because driving is more convenient, cheaper, or in any other way better for them. Blaming car traffic on the number of people in a densely populated area is futile, and any place that has grown reasonably with its population has also abandoned the notion that cars should be the default mode of transportation.
      - xsmasher 6y ago
        An EV doesn't waste power when sitting in traffic. Slow traffic will be better for range than going fast.
    - davidhbolton 6y ago
      I, like 17% of the UK population (approx. 10 million) live in rural areas. I'm six miles from the nearest supermarket and shops and public transport is non-existent. (Once a day type of thing). Prior to lockdown and wfh I was commuting 200 miles a week in a 18 year old Diesel that I bought for £500.I couldn't cycle (too dangerous), walk (too far) or bus (no bus). Round here many people drive Diesels for their economy (11% extra energy per gallon compared to Petrol) though currently with the Diesel price premium over Petrol being roughly 11% more that's no longer true but diesel engines do last longer. I'm not opposed to EVs but I don't think there'll be cheap ones like my Diesel if ever or at least for a long long time. And no one has said about future taxes on EVs. All that ICE fuel tax revenue will have to be replaced as it dwindles away. The 800 LB Gorilla in the room that no one mentions is "pay as you drive" I suspect.
      - maccard 6y ago
        Just because the technology doesn't work for 17% of people right now, doesn't mean we can't make an improvement for the other 83%. An anecdote, but I live in a city centre, quite close to a primary school. There are multiple range rovers parked outside in the mornings and afternoons. Living in edinburgh, your primary school is assigned based on your post code, so these kids are being driven less than a mile to school in 2L SUVs, in an area where the roads are gritted, and it's snowed a handful of times in the 7 years I've lived here. From speaking to my neighbors, most of the trips my neighbors make are less than 10 miles, and even at that, it's only an occasional 30-40 mile trip to one of the nearer seaside areas. _all_ of these trips are feasible with an EV. > but diesel engines do last longer. "Longer" kind of doesn't matter these days. Sure, a diesel engine will literally never die, however my first car was a 1.4L peugeot with 260,000 miles on it. The engine and chassis were the only parts that hadn't been replaced by the time I got it, which is 25 years of your current mileage. > I'm not opposed to EVs but I don't think there'll be cheap ones like my Diesel if ever or at least for a long long time. A person commuting 200 miles per week, driving an old, heavily polluting car is likely to be one of the most affected by these changes. People with your driving habits are the reason that regulations like this have to exist in these forms. Poeple will hyper=optimise for their own benefit, as all of the externalities aren't costed. At the very least, buy a post-2008 diesel with a DPF in it.
- sokoloff 6y ago
  My Nissan LEAF (pure EV) is almost 6 years old. It's going to be near-valueless (selling for parts) within another 6 years due to battery degradation [and not starting with that much range in the first place]. That's after one major battery-out warranty repair by Nissan already. The last two ICE cars I had, I bought them when they were 12 and 9 years old, rather than planning how to get them parted out at that age. I've very much enjoyed having an EV (especially as the guy who turns the wrenches), but they don't last anywhere near as long as ICE cars without major infusions of cash for the battery. My next car is very likely to be another 6-10 year-old ICE car where I'd probably never consider buying a 6-10 year-old pure EV.
  - brianwawok 6y ago
    LEAF went the cheap route of battery with bad thermal management. I think current generation of other BEV should get you at least 10 years. Not going to yet match my 16 year old Honda I have in my driveway as my backup car, but getting closer!!
    - sokoloff 6y ago
      All of that's true, but largely not helpful to the working poor who today can buy pretty reliable 15-20 year old Corollas, Civics, CR-Vs, etc for $1500-3000 and expect to drive them for 5 years or more and have them be every bit as useful at 25 years old as they were when they were 25 months old. "other BEV should get you at least 10 years" isn't nearly the same as "will get you 25 years if it doesn't rust out or get crashed".
      - brianwawok 6y ago
        Sure, but do realize those 25 year old cars are likely polluting 2-10x more than modern cars. The sooner we can get the oldest cars off the road, the best chance our planet has.
        sokoloff 6y ago
        Order of magnitude, making a car creates about as much emissions as driving it over its lifetime. [0] If we typically average even just 20 years from an ICE and 10 from a BEV, the BEV starts out way behind in the green race and might never catch up. Stopping making new inefficient cars is good. Scrapping working perfectly good cars is an alloy of good and bad. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2010/sep/23/carbon-footprint-new-car https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/20...

I would guess most people will not buy an used ICE car in 10 years when they can also buy an used electric car. The people into ICE engine sure, but they are not that many and rarely buying economical ICE cars.

Hamuko 6y ago
I doubt the range issues with EVs are fixed in 10 years.
- speedgoose 6y ago
  In UK? It's a small island. It's already fixed unless you buy a city car.
  - Hamuko 6y ago
    It's not that small.
    - speedgoose 6y ago
      True. I checked a better route planner, a great app to plan electric vehicles trips, and driving from Brighton to Glasgow today in 2020 is 7h10m of driving and 36m of charging with a tesla model 3. Let's round up to 1h of charging. I don't think it is a problem today, and even less in 10 years with better cars and a bigger charging network. Sure you may lose some time because you will have slightly longer breaks, but it's fine in my opinion and don't forget that electricity is cheaper than gaz (unless you charge to 100% on Ionity without using a car from a Ionity constructor).
      - Hamuko 6y ago
        >driving from Brighton to Glasgow today in 2020 is 7h10m of driving and 36m of charging with a tesla model 3 Is that under the assumption that it's a warm day?
        speedgoose 6y ago
        It was with 10°C. I put -10°C and it takes 8 minutes longer according to the app.
      - maccard 6y ago
        > Sure you may lose some time because you will have slightly longer breaks, Unless you've got two drivers, a 7 hour trip likely requires more than a 35 minute stop to eat, and rest anyway.
  - olivermarks 6y ago
    Traffic is very congested and slow in the UK, what looks like a short trip can take hours
    - davidhbolton 6y ago
      Uncontrolled mass migration (Thanks Tony Blair) under New Labour added five million people over a ten year period. Guess what, many drive cars. So yes, it has affected transport.
      - bichiliad 6y ago
        When I see people blame more drivers for traffic, the only culprit I can see is a failure to extend public transit accordingly. A huge number of people drive in New York, for example, for lack of a better alternative, not because driving is more convenient, cheaper, or in any other way better for them. Blaming car traffic on the number of people in a densely populated area is futile, and any place that has grown reasonably with its population has also abandoned the notion that cars should be the default mode of transportation.
    - xsmasher 6y ago
      An EV doesn't waste power when sitting in traffic. Slow traffic will be better for range than going fast.
  - davidhbolton 6y ago
    I, like 17% of the UK population (approx. 10 million) live in rural areas. I'm six miles from the nearest supermarket and shops and public transport is non-existent. (Once a day type of thing). Prior to lockdown and wfh I was commuting 200 miles a week in a 18 year old Diesel that I bought for £500.I couldn't cycle (too dangerous), walk (too far) or bus (no bus). Round here many people drive Diesels for their economy (11% extra energy per gallon compared to Petrol) though currently with the Diesel price premium over Petrol being roughly 11% more that's no longer true but diesel engines do last longer. I'm not opposed to EVs but I don't think there'll be cheap ones like my Diesel if ever or at least for a long long time. And no one has said about future taxes on EVs. All that ICE fuel tax revenue will have to be replaced as it dwindles away. The 800 LB Gorilla in the room that no one mentions is "pay as you drive" I suspect.
    - maccard 6y ago
      Just because the technology doesn't work for 17% of people right now, doesn't mean we can't make an improvement for the other 83%. An anecdote, but I live in a city centre, quite close to a primary school. There are multiple range rovers parked outside in the mornings and afternoons. Living in edinburgh, your primary school is assigned based on your post code, so these kids are being driven less than a mile to school in 2L SUVs, in an area where the roads are gritted, and it's snowed a handful of times in the 7 years I've lived here. From speaking to my neighbors, most of the trips my neighbors make are less than 10 miles, and even at that, it's only an occasional 30-40 mile trip to one of the nearer seaside areas. _all_ of these trips are feasible with an EV. > but diesel engines do last longer. "Longer" kind of doesn't matter these days. Sure, a diesel engine will literally never die, however my first car was a 1.4L peugeot with 260,000 miles on it. The engine and chassis were the only parts that hadn't been replaced by the time I got it, which is 25 years of your current mileage. > I'm not opposed to EVs but I don't think there'll be cheap ones like my Diesel if ever or at least for a long long time. A person commuting 200 miles per week, driving an old, heavily polluting car is likely to be one of the most affected by these changes. People with your driving habits are the reason that regulations like this have to exist in these forms. Poeple will hyper=optimise for their own benefit, as all of the externalities aren't costed. At the very least, buy a post-2008 diesel with a DPF in it.
sokoloff 6y ago
My Nissan LEAF (pure EV) is almost 6 years old. It's going to be near-valueless (selling for parts) within another 6 years due to battery degradation [and not starting with that much range in the first place]. That's after one major battery-out warranty repair by Nissan already. The last two ICE cars I had, I bought them when they were 12 and 9 years old, rather than planning how to get them parted out at that age. I've very much enjoyed having an EV (especially as the guy who turns the wrenches), but they don't last anywhere near as long as ICE cars without major infusions of cash for the battery. My next car is very likely to be another 6-10 year-old ICE car where I'd probably never consider buying a 6-10 year-old pure EV.
- brianwawok 6y ago
  LEAF went the cheap route of battery with bad thermal management. I think current generation of other BEV should get you at least 10 years. Not going to yet match my 16 year old Honda I have in my driveway as my backup car, but getting closer!!
  - sokoloff 6y ago
    All of that's true, but largely not helpful to the working poor who today can buy pretty reliable 15-20 year old Corollas, Civics, CR-Vs, etc for $1500-3000 and expect to drive them for 5 years or more and have them be every bit as useful at 25 years old as they were when they were 25 months old. "other BEV should get you at least 10 years" isn't nearly the same as "will get you 25 years if it doesn't rust out or get crashed".
    - brianwawok 6y ago
      Sure, but do realize those 25 year old cars are likely polluting 2-10x more than modern cars. The sooner we can get the oldest cars off the road, the best chance our planet has.
      - sokoloff 6y ago
        Order of magnitude, making a car creates about as much emissions as driving it over its lifetime. [0] If we typically average even just 20 years from an ICE and 10 from a BEV, the BEV starts out way behind in the green race and might never catch up. Stopping making new inefficient cars is good. Scrapping working perfectly good cars is an alloy of good and bad. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2010/sep/23/carbon-footprint-new-car https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/20...