2 ms·

As sad as it is, I feel this is more or less accurate. Unfortunately humans and society as a whole are wired such that we are compelled to form factions and des

As sad as it is, I feel this is more or less accurate. Unfortunately humans and society as a whole are wired such that we are compelled to form factions and destroy each other. But I guess that's what other animals do anyways

jariel 6y ago
So I'm not so cynical. My comment is not either, it's just realpolitik. Remember the entire region was under Ottoman power for 500 years, and then WW1/2 and the inability of European powers to wield real influence ... and so you have raging ideologies, clans, Oil, vendettas filling the vacuum. Frankly it's normal. We had some very scary moments between Israel and neighbours, but that has subsided. Now we have 'Iran vs. Everyone' but even that will stay under wraps as long as there are 'real powers' to contain them and there are. It will take another 100 years but it will settle down. Much like the Israel/Egypt tensions have faded from the memory of many people, those tensions will fade. A commenter hinted that it's 'bizarre' that Israel+Saudi have come to terms, it's not bizarre whatsoever it definitely mostly in their mutual self interest. The 'bizarre' issue is that the benefit of stability in the ME is not nearly so apparent anymore: the world doesn't quite depend on Saudi Arabia so much, and most of the Oil from there goes to China! The US is 'paying' for Chinese resource protection. That's bizarre. Hopefully, oil dependence will wane (it's not going away though), and tensions will subside. And FYI there's a lot of social and civil progress throughout that part of the world, we don't talk about it but the amount of access to education, information, awareness is shocking. The inter-generational divide in the ME is interesting. Consider MBS murdering a journalist. 25 years ago - no problem. Today? It made the news, which means US politicians 'have to care', and because his hold on power is tenuous, it means repercussions. He probably won't do it again. Look at Jordan. They are quiet and 'play nice' not for 40 years. Oman is not even on the radar. The 'odd ingredient' is Iran, because it's hard to see where their endgame is, the regime they have there is inherently unstable. Give it a few generations, it will settle down.

jariel 6y ago

So I'm not so cynical. My comment is not either, it's just realpolitik. Remember the entire region was under Ottoman power for 500 years, and then WW1/2 and the inability of European powers to wield real influence ... and so you have raging ideologies, clans, Oil, vendettas filling the vacuum. Frankly it's normal. We had some very scary moments between Israel and neighbours, but that has subsided. Now we have 'Iran vs. Everyone' but even that will stay under wraps as long as there are 'real powers' to contain them and there are. It will take another 100 years but it will settle down. Much like the Israel/Egypt tensions have faded from the memory of many people, those tensions will fade. A commenter hinted that it's 'bizarre' that Israel+Saudi have come to terms, it's not bizarre whatsoever it definitely mostly in their mutual self interest. The 'bizarre' issue is that the benefit of stability in the ME is not nearly so apparent anymore: the world doesn't quite depend on Saudi Arabia so much, and most of the Oil from there goes to China! The US is 'paying' for Chinese resource protection. That's bizarre. Hopefully, oil dependence will wane (it's not going away though), and tensions will subside. And FYI there's a lot of social and civil progress throughout that part of the world, we don't talk about it but the amount of access to education, information, awareness is shocking. The inter-generational divide in the ME is interesting. Consider MBS murdering a journalist. 25 years ago - no problem. Today? It made the news, which means US politicians 'have to care', and because his hold on power is tenuous, it means repercussions. He probably won't do it again. Look at Jordan. They are quiet and 'play nice' not for 40 years. Oman is not even on the radar. The 'odd ingredient' is Iran, because it's hard to see where their endgame is, the regime they have there is inherently unstable. Give it a few generations, it will settle down.