4 ms·

The assumption that 'intervention is war' and 'withdrawal' is peace is really short-sighted. The world is a balance of power, every move changes that dynamic.

by jariel 6y ago

The assumption that 'intervention is war' and 'withdrawal' is peace is really short-sighted. The world is a balance of power, every move changes that dynamic. Complete American withdrawal in Europe may have seen Putin do what he did in Crimea also in the Baltic states or possibly further, which creates the conditions for the possibility of 'real war' which would draw the US back in anyhow. The US is the 'lynch pin' of peace between Israel and Egypt, and keeps most the Arab peninsula more or less under wraps. The #1 recipient of foreign aid from the US is Egypt, of course a Muslim country, this surprises a lot of people - it's to keep Isreal/Egypt tensions under wraps. Because they have not had 'hot fighting' in a generation, most of us don't think about that as the 'problem spot' but really it is - if that broke down it would suck the entire region into a bad black hole of fighting. Without the US to protect House of Saud (and it doesn't need to even fire a bullet for that, just the credible threat of retaliation is enough) and their Sunni neighbours, Iran and Saudi Arabia would be going at each other, and though they don't have plans to 'invade' each other, it would break out into something ugly probably very quickly. The populists in Egypt (i.e. Muslim Brotherhood) could easily gain power, and their more radical factions would turn 88M people against Israel and that's a real problem, imagine the pro-Trump vs. anti-Trump rallies we see this weekend, but 100x as big, right on the Egypt/Isreal border - maybe neither government wants it, but as soon as 'someone dies' then they are forced to react and it gets swiftly out of hand. If 88M people 'want blood' then war is innevitable. And Iran's intransigence, though obviously fuelled by the US somewhat - is real. (Aside from 'total breakdown' of power i.e. E. Syria in which case some radical group like ISIS will take power) The 'piece on the board' that would 'make the system peaceful' if it were to be removed is point blank Iran, that's obvious. Yemen, the Gulf, Syria, Shia Iraq, Kurdish lands, and Lebanese instability via Syria ... it's Iran. The US forces in the M/E right now are not fighting for the most part, this is no longer Gulf War, so the 5th fleet + support is well placed. There is so much 'inherent instability' there it would fall apart very quickly. The availability of Oil money, concentrated into a few hands of people with personal and ideological vendettas is just too much. (Of course the real 'piece on the board were it to be removed would mean peace' is Oil).

ackbar03 6y ago
As sad as it is, I feel this is more or less accurate. Unfortunately humans and society as a whole are wired such that we are compelled to form factions and destroy each other. But I guess that's what other animals do anyways
- jariel 6y ago
  So I'm not so cynical. My comment is not either, it's just realpolitik. Remember the entire region was under Ottoman power for 500 years, and then WW1/2 and the inability of European powers to wield real influence ... and so you have raging ideologies, clans, Oil, vendettas filling the vacuum. Frankly it's normal. We had some very scary moments between Israel and neighbours, but that has subsided. Now we have 'Iran vs. Everyone' but even that will stay under wraps as long as there are 'real powers' to contain them and there are. It will take another 100 years but it will settle down. Much like the Israel/Egypt tensions have faded from the memory of many people, those tensions will fade. A commenter hinted that it's 'bizarre' that Israel+Saudi have come to terms, it's not bizarre whatsoever it definitely mostly in their mutual self interest. The 'bizarre' issue is that the benefit of stability in the ME is not nearly so apparent anymore: the world doesn't quite depend on Saudi Arabia so much, and most of the Oil from there goes to China! The US is 'paying' for Chinese resource protection. That's bizarre. Hopefully, oil dependence will wane (it's not going away though), and tensions will subside. And FYI there's a lot of social and civil progress throughout that part of the world, we don't talk about it but the amount of access to education, information, awareness is shocking. The inter-generational divide in the ME is interesting. Consider MBS murdering a journalist. 25 years ago - no problem. Today? It made the news, which means US politicians 'have to care', and because his hold on power is tenuous, it means repercussions. He probably won't do it again. Look at Jordan. They are quiet and 'play nice' not for 40 years. Oman is not even on the radar. The 'odd ingredient' is Iran, because it's hard to see where their endgame is, the regime they have there is inherently unstable. Give it a few generations, it will settle down.
Spooky23 6y ago
What’s the strategy? Unfortunately time has been unkind to US governance and the tail wags the dog. The US is in a bizarre situation where Saudi Arabia and Israel are the key allies, and both states play out their own forms of internal political conflict within the US. Meanwhile the usual mess of sectarian and external stakeholders all vie for position. The US can’t “pull out”. But we need to figure out what we want post-Trump.

by jariel 6y ago

ackbar03 6y ago

As sad as it is, I feel this is more or less accurate. Unfortunately humans and society as a whole are wired such that we are compelled to form factions and destroy each other. But I guess that's what other animals do anyways

jariel 6y ago
So I'm not so cynical. My comment is not either, it's just realpolitik. Remember the entire region was under Ottoman power for 500 years, and then WW1/2 and the inability of European powers to wield real influence ... and so you have raging ideologies, clans, Oil, vendettas filling the vacuum. Frankly it's normal. We had some very scary moments between Israel and neighbours, but that has subsided. Now we have 'Iran vs. Everyone' but even that will stay under wraps as long as there are 'real powers' to contain them and there are. It will take another 100 years but it will settle down. Much like the Israel/Egypt tensions have faded from the memory of many people, those tensions will fade. A commenter hinted that it's 'bizarre' that Israel+Saudi have come to terms, it's not bizarre whatsoever it definitely mostly in their mutual self interest. The 'bizarre' issue is that the benefit of stability in the ME is not nearly so apparent anymore: the world doesn't quite depend on Saudi Arabia so much, and most of the Oil from there goes to China! The US is 'paying' for Chinese resource protection. That's bizarre. Hopefully, oil dependence will wane (it's not going away though), and tensions will subside. And FYI there's a lot of social and civil progress throughout that part of the world, we don't talk about it but the amount of access to education, information, awareness is shocking. The inter-generational divide in the ME is interesting. Consider MBS murdering a journalist. 25 years ago - no problem. Today? It made the news, which means US politicians 'have to care', and because his hold on power is tenuous, it means repercussions. He probably won't do it again. Look at Jordan. They are quiet and 'play nice' not for 40 years. Oman is not even on the radar. The 'odd ingredient' is Iran, because it's hard to see where their endgame is, the regime they have there is inherently unstable. Give it a few generations, it will settle down.

Spooky23 6y ago

What’s the strategy? Unfortunately time has been unkind to US governance and the tail wags the dog. The US is in a bizarre situation where Saudi Arabia and Israel are the key allies, and both states play out their own forms of internal political conflict within the US. Meanwhile the usual mess of sectarian and external stakeholders all vie for position. The US can’t “pull out”. But we need to figure out what we want post-Trump.