3 ms·

> At some point the exponential curve has to go S-shaped. In principle yes, of course. In practice, you are imagining a world in which we never expand our civ

> At some point the exponential curve has to go S-shaped. In principle yes, of course. In practice, you are imagining a world in which we never expand our civilization into space and across the galaxy, because otherwise you would be looking at the S curve and thinking "wow, this thing has only just gotten started" and marveling at what lies ahead.

paulryanrogers 6y ago
Our space-ward expansion has some hard physics limits. And we've not yet eclipsed what was already done decades ago. And even settling Mars will require more sustainable lifestyles than most first world citizens now enjoy.
- xmprt 6y ago
  We're talking about hundreds and thousands of years though. A few hundred years ago, the mere thought of airplanes and cell phones would be considered witchcraft. I don't think it's a long shot to be reasonably optimistic about where humanity can get in terms of technology.
  - paulryanrogers 6y ago
    Imagination is unlimited. I don't mean to harsh anyone's dreams. But technological development isn't a predictable march forward. There is less low hanging fruit as things progress. I'd guess we're very close to the peak of attainable technology. Once sustainability comes into the picture then, IMO, we're beyond the limit.
    - xmprt 6y ago
      It's not supposed to be all easy. A big part of advancement is creating technology that enables us to reach higher with less effort. Sustainability is a big issue now that a lot of people are working towards. Once we unlock more efficient techniques of capturing solar energy, energy becomes almost a non issue until we reach another barrier that's orders of magnitude away. Space travel will reduce resource limitations too.
    - BobbyJo 6y ago
      >I'd guess we're very close to the peak of attainable technology. Not many people, and pretty much no research scientist, would agree with that statement. I can personally think of several technologies I'm 100% certain will exist in < 40 years that will drastically alter everything about day to day life.
      - ipython 6y ago
        I’m very curious what are the technologies you’re tracking?
- count 6y ago
  European global expansion also had hard physics limits. The age of sail grew the global GDP tremendously. I wouldn't discount multi-year asteroid mining trips/etc. from having the same impact in 50-100 years.
  - ouid 6y ago
    Really? What do you imagine to be receiving from an asteroid that cannot more easily be obtained from the earth?
    - diab0lic 6y ago
      Large volumes of minerals that are already in space (don't need to expend energy putting them in orbit) to build settlements, ships, etc...
- njarboe 6y ago
  "settling Mars will require more sustainable lifestyles than most first world citizens now enjoy." Not if they decide to use nuclear power. Humanity has at least one more dramatic jump in power-use/person that has been ready since the 1960's.
onion2k 6y ago
If I had to bet on which happens first out of the end of growth-driven capitalism or humans leaving the solar system I wouldn't be putting my money on spaceships.

paulryanrogers 6y ago

Our space-ward expansion has some hard physics limits. And we've not yet eclipsed what was already done decades ago. And even settling Mars will require more sustainable lifestyles than most first world citizens now enjoy.

xmprt 6y ago
We're talking about hundreds and thousands of years though. A few hundred years ago, the mere thought of airplanes and cell phones would be considered witchcraft. I don't think it's a long shot to be reasonably optimistic about where humanity can get in terms of technology.
- paulryanrogers 6y ago
  Imagination is unlimited. I don't mean to harsh anyone's dreams. But technological development isn't a predictable march forward. There is less low hanging fruit as things progress. I'd guess we're very close to the peak of attainable technology. Once sustainability comes into the picture then, IMO, we're beyond the limit.
  - xmprt 6y ago
    It's not supposed to be all easy. A big part of advancement is creating technology that enables us to reach higher with less effort. Sustainability is a big issue now that a lot of people are working towards. Once we unlock more efficient techniques of capturing solar energy, energy becomes almost a non issue until we reach another barrier that's orders of magnitude away. Space travel will reduce resource limitations too.
  - BobbyJo 6y ago
    >I'd guess we're very close to the peak of attainable technology. Not many people, and pretty much no research scientist, would agree with that statement. I can personally think of several technologies I'm 100% certain will exist in < 40 years that will drastically alter everything about day to day life.
    - ipython 6y ago
      I’m very curious what are the technologies you’re tracking?
count 6y ago
European global expansion also had hard physics limits. The age of sail grew the global GDP tremendously. I wouldn't discount multi-year asteroid mining trips/etc. from having the same impact in 50-100 years.
- ouid 6y ago
  Really? What do you imagine to be receiving from an asteroid that cannot more easily be obtained from the earth?
  - diab0lic 6y ago
    Large volumes of minerals that are already in space (don't need to expend energy putting them in orbit) to build settlements, ships, etc...
njarboe 6y ago
"settling Mars will require more sustainable lifestyles than most first world citizens now enjoy." Not if they decide to use nuclear power. Humanity has at least one more dramatic jump in power-use/person that has been ready since the 1960's.

onion2k 6y ago

If I had to bet on which happens first out of the end of growth-driven capitalism or humans leaving the solar system I wouldn't be putting my money on spaceships.