3 ms·
That'd depend on your prior, before hearing of this, for expecting a mechanism for chilis to reduce mortality by 25%. My prior if you'd asked me would've been
by abecedarius 6y ago
That'd depend on your prior, before hearing of this, for expecting a mechanism for chilis to reduce mortality by 25%.
My prior if you'd asked me would've been "c'mon, you really think so?" Not impossible but quite unlikely.
- radu_floricica 6y agoOf course. And a real-life bayesian agent should also have a shortcut for "odds too low to bother updating". I just wanted to point out that journal standards shouldn't be applied for real life decisions. What priors you have is totally up to you.
- abecedarius 6y agoI'm just saying your 2:1 for-example seems really optimistic. That'd be easy to miss.