Woah! Massively misleading title - the paper actually predicts that he was in a town called Parachinar, about 400km to the west of Abbottabad. The 81% figure

Woah! Massively misleading title - the paper actually predicts that he was in a town called Parachinar, about 400km to the west of Abbottabad. The 81% figure was simply based on a geographic decay calculation - that is, it is a figure that represents the probability that Bin Laden was x km from his last known location in the Tora Bora region. The larger x is, the lower the probability. Parachinar is just the other side of the Pakastani-Afghan border, next to Tora Bora, about 50km away in fact. The real location was much further