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Completely agree. The world's supply of semiconductors is dependent, in some ways, on the benevolence of the CCP. TSMC is like Arakkis. We need to diversify the

Completely agree. The world's supply of semiconductors is dependent, in some ways, on the benevolence of the CCP. TSMC is like Arakkis. We need to diversify the supply chain.

aaaxyz 6y ago
Isn't TSMC building a fab in AZ? Anyway I'd say the "spice" in semiconductor production is rare earth elements, since the CCP controls most of their extraction (and has artificially lowered exports in the past)
- hn_throwaway_99 6y ago
  > Anyway I'd say the "spice" in semiconductor production is rare earth elements, since the CCP controls most of their extraction That's really only because of other countries outsourcing to China and not supporting domestic mining. There is no shortage of rare earths in other countries.
  - hajile 6y ago
    That's very true. European countries "go green" by exporting their mining pollution to China. They can then blame China for all the pollution problems. Brilliant really. Get political points for "lowering emissions", then double dip getting more points for "being hard on China" while at the same time not hugely affecting the economy, jobs, or ticking off industrialists.
- calcifer 6y ago
  > Isn't TSMC building a fab in AZ? Yes, but the planned chips are an older generation right now and they'll be even older when the fab actually starts production. TSMC would never move cutting edge production outside of Taiwan.
  - an_opabinia 6y ago
    It’s just such nincompoopery, people speculating about geopolitics. TSMC is owned by normal people who want to make money, if for some reason they aren’t able to trade, ownership will move out IP and put it on a USB key, and build elsewhere. Just think about it rationally. If TSMC isn’t allowed to meet demand, well of course someone will be incentivized to move the IP elsewhere where you are permitted to meet demand. It would be such a colossal opportunity. Indeed shutting off TSMC would be great for other people interested in getting into chip manufacturing, in the same way that reducing competition in anything benefits producers. The reason that doesn’t happen has nothing to do with geopolitics and everything to do with what every mainstream US politician has always been saying: subsidies, and the price of labor.
    - calcifer 6y ago
      This is a naive take on Taiwan's status and China's attitude towards it. The simple fact is TSMC being in Taiwan greatly incentivizes western powers to protect Taiwan from Chinese aggression. Everyone knows it, especially the Taiwanese government. > Just think about it rationally. Indeed.
- octoberfranklin 6y ago
  No, they're saying they're building a fab in AZ. Like Foxconn is (still!) saying they're building a fab in WI.
ptx 6y ago
TSMC is a Taiwanese company. The world can ensure the supply of its semiconductors by ensuring Taiwan has access to weapons and guarantees of military assistance in case the CCP's benevolence wavers.
- tuatoru 6y ago
  China claims that Taiwan is a renegade province. When (not if) China acts on that, there will be trouble. China has strong infowar capability and is developing it quickly. Old-fashioned spy-vs-spy type warfare works, too, but is less visible.
- kelnos 6y ago
  If China decides to take Taiwan by force, there is very little the rest of the world can do to stop them.
  - bgorman 6y ago
    Nazi Germany attempted to take tiny Malta from the Britsh for two years and failed. The Japanese held many untenable defensive positions in the Pacific for months. Unless China is willing to nuke Taiwan, (what would be the point?) a military offensive to take over Taiwan would be extremely unlikely to succeed within a few months - and assuming the US/Australia/UK/Japan/South Korea provide support - almost impossible. Doing any kind of amphibious landing offensive is incredibly costly and difficult. China's best hope would be that Joe Biden is under CCP control.
    - octoberfranklin 6y ago
      None of those other islands were even remotely close to the strategic value of Taiwan.
  - AgentOrange1234 6y ago
    Will do? Sure. But can do? Sanctions, war, ...
- octoberfranklin 6y ago

Completely agree. The world's supply of semiconductors is dependent, in some ways, on the benevolence of the CCP. TSMC is like Arakkis. We need to diversify the supply chain.

aaaxyz 6y ago

Isn't TSMC building a fab in AZ? Anyway I'd say the "spice" in semiconductor production is rare earth elements, since the CCP controls most of their extraction (and has artificially lowered exports in the past)

hn_throwaway_99 6y ago
> Anyway I'd say the "spice" in semiconductor production is rare earth elements, since the CCP controls most of their extraction That's really only because of other countries outsourcing to China and not supporting domestic mining. There is no shortage of rare earths in other countries.
- hajile 6y ago
  That's very true. European countries "go green" by exporting their mining pollution to China. They can then blame China for all the pollution problems. Brilliant really. Get political points for "lowering emissions", then double dip getting more points for "being hard on China" while at the same time not hugely affecting the economy, jobs, or ticking off industrialists.
calcifer 6y ago
> Isn't TSMC building a fab in AZ? Yes, but the planned chips are an older generation right now and they'll be even older when the fab actually starts production. TSMC would never move cutting edge production outside of Taiwan.
- an_opabinia 6y ago
  It’s just such nincompoopery, people speculating about geopolitics. TSMC is owned by normal people who want to make money, if for some reason they aren’t able to trade, ownership will move out IP and put it on a USB key, and build elsewhere. Just think about it rationally. If TSMC isn’t allowed to meet demand, well of course someone will be incentivized to move the IP elsewhere where you are permitted to meet demand. It would be such a colossal opportunity. Indeed shutting off TSMC would be great for other people interested in getting into chip manufacturing, in the same way that reducing competition in anything benefits producers. The reason that doesn’t happen has nothing to do with geopolitics and everything to do with what every mainstream US politician has always been saying: subsidies, and the price of labor.
  - calcifer 6y ago
    This is a naive take on Taiwan's status and China's attitude towards it. The simple fact is TSMC being in Taiwan greatly incentivizes western powers to protect Taiwan from Chinese aggression. Everyone knows it, especially the Taiwanese government. > Just think about it rationally. Indeed.
octoberfranklin 6y ago
No, they're saying they're building a fab in AZ. Like Foxconn is (still!) saying they're building a fab in WI.

ptx 6y ago

TSMC is a Taiwanese company. The world can ensure the supply of its semiconductors by ensuring Taiwan has access to weapons and guarantees of military assistance in case the CCP's benevolence wavers.

tuatoru 6y ago
China claims that Taiwan is a renegade province. When (not if) China acts on that, there will be trouble. China has strong infowar capability and is developing it quickly. Old-fashioned spy-vs-spy type warfare works, too, but is less visible.
kelnos 6y ago
If China decides to take Taiwan by force, there is very little the rest of the world can do to stop them.
- bgorman 6y ago
  Nazi Germany attempted to take tiny Malta from the Britsh for two years and failed. The Japanese held many untenable defensive positions in the Pacific for months. Unless China is willing to nuke Taiwan, (what would be the point?) a military offensive to take over Taiwan would be extremely unlikely to succeed within a few months - and assuming the US/Australia/UK/Japan/South Korea provide support - almost impossible. Doing any kind of amphibious landing offensive is incredibly costly and difficult. China's best hope would be that Joe Biden is under CCP control.
  - octoberfranklin 6y ago
    None of those other islands were even remotely close to the strategic value of Taiwan.
- AgentOrange1234 6y ago
  Will do? Sure. But can do? Sanctions, war, ...
octoberfranklin 6y ago