> AI will achieve human-level intelligence I just have a passing interest in the AI space, but I feel like we've been hearing that this is "10 years away" for

> AI will achieve human-level intelligence I just have a passing interest in the AI space, but I feel like we've been hearing that this is "10 years away" for the last 20+ years. Maybe I'm wrong, but with technologies like AI and self driving cars we tend to make a lot of progress and then hit long plateaus of minimal improvement. It feels like someone makes a breakthrough and then everyone rushes to solve all the formerly hard problems that are now easy to solve because of that breakthrough, but once those dry up, we run into a different "unsolvable" problem. The general public keeps assuming we will advance in a linear (or logarithmic) fashion during those times of growth and fails to account for the fact that there are large plateaus of minimal growth in between them. I do think at some point we will achieve this, but 10 years feels like an incredibly optimistic timeline. Also, as a side note, over the years I've found that anyone who describes themselves as a "futurist" tends to have a bit of optimism bias toward how quickly we will reach certain technological milestones, which makes me believe this timeline even less.