10 ms·

Isn't the long-term care facility link a little implausible? 4 days seems like a bit short for the child to be infected, incubate to the point of being contagi

Isn't the long-term care facility link a little implausible? 4 days seems like a bit short for the child to be infected, incubate to the point of being contagious, pass it to the parent, then incubate again to the parent being symptomatic. Regardless, the wedding and reception behavior was entirely irresponsible. But the link between it and the long-term care cases seems tenuous, at best.

sp332 6y ago
*tenuous
- NotTheDr01ds 6y ago
  That's the one I was looking for - Thanks :-) Edited
raesene9 6y ago
It would depend on how the tracing was done I'd expect. I believe it is often possible to sequence the data from the infections to provide a link between them, that may have been done in this case. (https://twitter.com/nextstrain https://twitter.com/nextstrain - is an example)
- triangleman 6y ago
  Check the study: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6945a5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6945a5.htm It looks like just contact tracing here, not genome sequencing. The patient in question is A2 and the study does not say whether they ever tested positive or had symptoms.
ericbarrett 6y ago
Doesn’t seem so; the numbers I’ve heard since the beginning of the pandemic are 24-48 hours until you are infectious, and 2-14 days (a lot of variance) for symptoms, if you are going to show them. If somebody has newer numbers please do share.
- NotTheDr01ds 6y ago
  Well, there's the rub. No one seems to know, even today, how long after exposure you become contagious. That's especially the case for asymptomatic spreaders (as we assume the child was, if the child was the source for the parent). Everyone seems to say "1-2 days before symptoms start", although some sources say "2-3 days". And yes, as you say, the 2-14 days for becoming symptomatic seems to be much more agreed upon. That's where it seems to me to be a very rapid spread (below average) from the wedding to the LTCF. But not impossible. I was also curious about the situation around the LTCF in the days leading up to that outbreak. I was expecting to find that perhaps there were other community cases around there that could have contributed to the LTCF. However, looking at the MeCDC website for Somerset County (where the LTCF is reported to be located), the county seemed to be pretty "under control" in the days leading up to this event. The most recent confirmed cases had been over 2 weeks prior, on July 24th. It's actually the longest they had gone without a new case in almost 3 months. Given that, I'm more likely (as the CDC concluded) to suspect the contact tracing from the wedding to the LTCF as being the cause. It's not an absolute link, but it's probably more likely than I originally assumed.

sp332 6y ago

*tenuous

NotTheDr01ds 6y ago
That's the one I was looking for - Thanks :-) Edited

raesene9 6y ago

It would depend on how the tracing was done I'd expect. I believe it is often possible to sequence the data from the infections to provide a link between them, that may have been done in this case. (https://twitter.com/nextstrain https://twitter.com/nextstrain - is an example)

triangleman 6y ago
Check the study: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6945a5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6945a5.htm It looks like just contact tracing here, not genome sequencing. The patient in question is A2 and the study does not say whether they ever tested positive or had symptoms.

ericbarrett 6y ago

Doesn’t seem so; the numbers I’ve heard since the beginning of the pandemic are 24-48 hours until you are infectious, and 2-14 days (a lot of variance) for symptoms, if you are going to show them. If somebody has newer numbers please do share.

NotTheDr01ds 6y ago
Well, there's the rub. No one seems to know, even today, how long after exposure you become contagious. That's especially the case for asymptomatic spreaders (as we assume the child was, if the child was the source for the parent). Everyone seems to say "1-2 days before symptoms start", although some sources say "2-3 days". And yes, as you say, the 2-14 days for becoming symptomatic seems to be much more agreed upon. That's where it seems to me to be a very rapid spread (below average) from the wedding to the LTCF. But not impossible. I was also curious about the situation around the LTCF in the days leading up to that outbreak. I was expecting to find that perhaps there were other community cases around there that could have contributed to the LTCF. However, looking at the MeCDC website for Somerset County (where the LTCF is reported to be located), the county seemed to be pretty "under control" in the days leading up to this event. The most recent confirmed cases had been over 2 weeks prior, on July 24th. It's actually the longest they had gone without a new case in almost 3 months. Given that, I'm more likely (as the CDC concluded) to suspect the contact tracing from the wedding to the LTCF as being the cause. It's not an absolute link, but it's probably more likely than I originally assumed.