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Let me propose the following thought experiment: for all the folks who claim they can predict climate 400 years (or 100 or 30 years) out, please take the climat
by haltingproblem 6y ago
Let me propose the following thought experiment: for all the folks who claim they can predict climate 400 years (or 100 or 30 years) out, please take the climate models and run them for only 1 year out. This should give you much much lower error bars ergo higher confidence.
Use it to predict winter in NE 1 year out? I would posit that if they can predict average temps 400 years out then average temps 1 year out should have higher confidence? These predictions can be used to trade heating oil futures and make tens of billions. I do know that energy firms employ many climate modelers but unsure of the accuracy of their forecast s even 1 year out.
- croon 6y agoImagine you have a gun mounted in a bench vice, pointing down a shooting rage towards a target. You can map out 50 shots from that gun, and pinpoint the average middle, and how much individual shots diverge from that middle. Then you take the average of another 50 shots and notice the recoil has pushed the average middle slightly upwards. So you make a model predicting the average middle in another 50 shots, accounting for the degree change from the recoil meaning a further distance than the previous to average middles. Then comes along a guy asking you to predict just 1 shot, the next one, not an average. Which of course is much less accurate. That is what you're suggesting.
- haltingproblem 6y agoHeating oil futures and natural gas futures for the various regions are tied to the average temperature since oil/gas heating usage is tied to temperature across days and not just the min or max. So to go back to your excellent analogy, I am certainly asking for the average middle (the first moment) and not a point prediction. ps: you should write more, we need better scientific explanations!