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> it spreads much less, and it kills far fewer people. Over what timeframe? Novel viruses come but once per century, flu kills consistently year after year af
by umvi 6y ago
> it spreads much less, and it kills far fewer people.
Over what timeframe? Novel viruses come but once per century, flu kills consistently year after year after year, always mutating to escape eradication... and the flu deaths pile up to astronomical heights over the decades
- DiogenesKynikos 6y agoCoVID-19 has already killed as many Americans as flu typically does in 10 years. Only a relatively small percentage of Americans have gotten infected with SARS-CoV-2 yet. Without vaccination, in the space of a few years at most, CoVID-19 will kill as many people as flu does in many decades.
- umvi 6y agoSource? According to CDC, flu has killed 336k over the past 9 years[0] [0] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
- DiogenesKynikos 6y agoThe US is already at 250,000 confirmed CoVID-19 deaths, with over 1000 deaths every day, and rising.
- tsimionescu 6y agoOk, so Covid 19 killed 60% as many people in one year as the flu in 10, and this only after huge efforts have been made to slow it down. Without the lockdowns and masks, it would have easily topped flu deaths for the decade. Much worse, if the Healthcare system gets overrun.
- umvi 6y agoYeah only because it's a novel virus and there is little to no herd immunity. I'm sure flu killed even more its first year when it was novel (since we didn't know about how viruses spread). Once it is no longer novel it will be a seasonal virus likely that kills at similar rates to flu. The real question is, can we stop wearing masks once we've achieve herd immunity? Or is it worth wearing them cradle to grave to reduce seasonal deaths as well?
- tsimionescu 6y agoHerd immunity is something that happens when you have the majority of the population vaccinated. There's no such thing as natural herd immunity. Hopefully, the Covid19 vaccines will be able to destroy a broader variety of the SARS-CoV2 strains than the flu vaccines can. Masks are something we will hopefully have learned to wear forever during the cold season, as they will have a measurable impact on deaths not just from seasonal Covid, but from seasonal flu as well. I believe that the majority of the population will internalize this simple hygienic practice from now on, which would be one silver lining for this pandemic. People in East Asia have learned this habit some time ago, and it has served them well.
- umvi 6y ago> There's no such thing as natural herd immunity. I disagree. I just think the humans most severely vulnerable to the flu died off during the first few waves. Consider small pox. It was a novel virus for the Native Americans, who had no "natural herd immunity" and they got eviscerated by small pox. Colonists, despite not having vaccines, and despite still being able to get small pox, were not eviscerated since the virus wasn't able to spread and/or kill as well due to their natural immune systems. What do you call this if not "natural herd immunity"? If you kill off all the weak and vulnerable, leaving only survivors and survivors' offspring who are virus-resistant... then you now have "natural herd immunity".
- tsimionescu 6y agoHerd immunity has a clear meaning: people who are individually vulnerable to a disease being protected from it by virtue of everyone around them being immune. What you're describing is simply a disease running its course and killing everyone who is not naturally immune/resistant or not strong enough to survive despite being sick. There is no herd immunity aspect. At best you could call it natural selection.
- tsimionescu 6y agoCovid 19 is likely here to stay forever as a seasonal outbreak, like the flu. Viruses in general don't go away unless extraordinary measures are taken. They also tend to add up - the flu kills this many people each year, Covid19 will kill an extra this many people each year.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]