4 ms·

While this is clearly a second wave, "New cases" are kind of meaningless as it is very much tied to the amount of testing performed. Here are the stats for num

While this is clearly a second wave, "New cases" are kind of meaningless as it is very much tied to the amount of testing performed. Here are the stats for number of deaths and also patients in ICU which gives a different picture. Still alarming but not as crazy as this "New cases"-graph might make you believe. (two links to the same image on separate image hosting services) https://postimg.cc/rzyCv57W https://postimg.cc/rzyCv57W https://imgbox.com/zI14ri2b https://imgbox.com/zI14ri2b Sources: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6... Public Health Agency of Sweden

_ph_ 6y ago
New cases are not meaningless. They might just not be 1:1 comparable in numeric values to the numbers a couple of months before. But if you are an an exponential raise, even pretty large factors are caught up with literally within a couple of days.
- RamRodification 6y ago
  You are correct. That's why I went with "kind of meaningless". Maybe a bit too harsh by me. What I really meant was "not as meaningful as people make it out to be." (or "seem to want it to be"). The post kind of goes from straight talk about deaths to "and here are stats" which are not at all showing deaths. Comes off a little dishonest to me. And the stat on deaths being "40% above the U.S. equivalent" just seem plain wrong. See the comments on the post for that.
- sharken 6y ago
  New cases do not say anything about how many dead you can expect, case in point Czech Republic: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-repu...
  - _ph_ 6y ago
    How is this a case in point? The curve of the deaths follows the curve of infections closely.
    - sharken 6y ago
      Both Sweden and New York have seen an upward trend of infections, but without a big increase in deaths as you have in the Czech Republic. Here is the data for New York: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/
- u320 6y ago
  No, since in this situation the error is growing exponentially too. There can never be any "catching up" in this case.
ceejayoz 6y ago
Deaths are a lagging indicator, in part because it takes a while to die - Herman Cain didn't die for a month - and in part because it takes a while to report them after death. (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm: "Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources...")
Zash 6y ago
Indeed, and large-scale testing was just getting started during the first peak. IIRC the bump around June in the "new cases" data corresponds to a scale-up of testing capacity.
sh1989 6y ago
You also need to look at the positivity rate, which answers the question are cases going up because of increased testing, or despite of? https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?country=~SWE https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?countr...

_ph_ 6y ago

New cases are not meaningless. They might just not be 1:1 comparable in numeric values to the numbers a couple of months before. But if you are an an exponential raise, even pretty large factors are caught up with literally within a couple of days.

RamRodification 6y ago
You are correct. That's why I went with "kind of meaningless". Maybe a bit too harsh by me. What I really meant was "not as meaningful as people make it out to be." (or "seem to want it to be"). The post kind of goes from straight talk about deaths to "and here are stats" which are not at all showing deaths. Comes off a little dishonest to me. And the stat on deaths being "40% above the U.S. equivalent" just seem plain wrong. See the comments on the post for that.
sharken 6y ago
New cases do not say anything about how many dead you can expect, case in point Czech Republic: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-repu...
- _ph_ 6y ago
  How is this a case in point? The curve of the deaths follows the curve of infections closely.
  - sharken 6y ago
    Both Sweden and New York have seen an upward trend of infections, but without a big increase in deaths as you have in the Czech Republic. Here is the data for New York: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/
u320 6y ago
No, since in this situation the error is growing exponentially too. There can never be any "catching up" in this case.

ceejayoz 6y ago

Deaths are a lagging indicator, in part because it takes a while to die - Herman Cain didn't die for a month - and in part because it takes a while to report them after death. (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm: "Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources...")

Zash 6y ago

Indeed, and large-scale testing was just getting started during the first peak. IIRC the bump around June in the "new cases" data corresponds to a scale-up of testing capacity.

sh1989 6y ago

You also need to look at the positivity rate, which answers the question are cases going up because of increased testing, or despite of? https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?country=~SWE https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?countr...