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My argument is not disingenuous at all. Rather, I think you're being assumptive. I'm not talking about the case where a person's prospects are that they'll liv

by beaner 6y ago

My argument is not disingenuous at all. Rather, I think you're being assumptive. I'm not talking about the case where a person's prospects are that they'll live for quite some time. I'm talking about the case where somebody is already essentially on their death bed for cancer, for heart problems, for fatal car injuries or shootings, or even other viruses, who are going to die imminently anyway.

joshuamorton 6y ago
> I'm talking about the case where somebody is already essentially on their death bed for cancer, Are you additionally claiming that this makes up some significant percentage of total covid deaths? Like, if 2% of the deaths due to covid are indeed people who were going to die anyway, but may or may not have died a week earlier due to covid, well 1. They may have died a week earlier due to covid. Whose place is it to judge that? (there are measures that try to take into account loss of livable years, but they agree that Covid is pretty terrible) 2. Who cares if the estimate is off by a few percent? So concern about this overcounting is predicated on an assumption that some significant number of people are on death's door already, and that basically only those people are dying of covid. Most covid-deaths are of people under 85 years old, and even an 85 year old has a life expectancy of 6 years though, so that seems unlikely.
- Kranar 6y ago
  40% of COVID-19 related deaths are from people in LTC facilities [1] where the median life expectancy is 21 months (average is 29 months). Now that doesn't mean we should entirely downplay the risk here, but there are alternative solutions that can allow us to take care of the vast majority of people who are seriously at risk from COVID-19 without absolutely ruining the economy and harming the majority of people's way of life in a manner that may very well be irreparable for a decade, if not longer. [1] https://covidtracking.com/data/longtermcare https://covidtracking.com/data/longtermcare
  - joshuamorton 6y ago
    I think there's a few ways of looking at this, and none of them are particularly compelling for your broader point. First, you're (I believe) misquoting the length-of-stay in non-hospice LTC facilities as life expectancy. There's a few reasons that's wrong and a significant underestimate. Most LTC patients leave and live a few years beyond the end of their stay in other facilities (hospice, or more intense care facilities). Additionally, some patients leave because they're healthy (I assume you go to a care facility because you have a broken hip, or something, but leave once you're healed). These patients have, as a group, significantly shorter stays, so the median stay length among terminal inhabitants is actually longer. But let's assume you're correct. In fact let's go further and say that those people's lives are irrelevant, or unavoidable losses, because they were going to die soon anyway. In fact, let's assume the same for everyone over the age of 75 (who I presume make up the vast majority of the LTC deaths as well). They were close to death anyway, and Covid just got them there a little faster. We're still left with more than 93000 deaths and counting. Deaths that can't be blamed on long term care facilities, or even age. Deaths in people who might have lived for 30+ more years in many cases. Certainly nursing homes and the very elderly may deserve special and additional protections, but claiming that because old, frail, and colocated people are highly impacted that we could relax is a disservice to all of the not-old, not-frail, and not-colocated people who still may need protection. And I think you're vastly exaggerating the impact, both on the economy, and on the way of life, that a well managed set of guidelines have. Mask mandates + closure of certain non-essential businesses + restrictions on others means that relatively few things shut down. Certainly some do, your mall and movie theater may have trouble, but grocery stores and restaraunts can and are surviving and adapting (and imo the changes to enable urban outdoor dining that are happening in SF, Chicago, and other cities aren't a change that should be repaired, they should be embraced).

by beaner 6y ago

joshuamorton 6y ago

> I'm talking about the case where somebody is already essentially on their death bed for cancer, Are you additionally claiming that this makes up some significant percentage of total covid deaths? Like, if 2% of the deaths due to covid are indeed people who were going to die anyway, but may or may not have died a week earlier due to covid, well 1. They may have died a week earlier due to covid. Whose place is it to judge that? (there are measures that try to take into account loss of livable years, but they agree that Covid is pretty terrible) 2. Who cares if the estimate is off by a few percent? So concern about this overcounting is predicated on an assumption that some significant number of people are on death's door already, and that basically only those people are dying of covid. Most covid-deaths are of people under 85 years old, and even an 85 year old has a life expectancy of 6 years though, so that seems unlikely.

Kranar 6y ago
40% of COVID-19 related deaths are from people in LTC facilities [1] where the median life expectancy is 21 months (average is 29 months). Now that doesn't mean we should entirely downplay the risk here, but there are alternative solutions that can allow us to take care of the vast majority of people who are seriously at risk from COVID-19 without absolutely ruining the economy and harming the majority of people's way of life in a manner that may very well be irreparable for a decade, if not longer. [1] https://covidtracking.com/data/longtermcare https://covidtracking.com/data/longtermcare
- joshuamorton 6y ago
  I think there's a few ways of looking at this, and none of them are particularly compelling for your broader point. First, you're (I believe) misquoting the length-of-stay in non-hospice LTC facilities as life expectancy. There's a few reasons that's wrong and a significant underestimate. Most LTC patients leave and live a few years beyond the end of their stay in other facilities (hospice, or more intense care facilities). Additionally, some patients leave because they're healthy (I assume you go to a care facility because you have a broken hip, or something, but leave once you're healed). These patients have, as a group, significantly shorter stays, so the median stay length among terminal inhabitants is actually longer. But let's assume you're correct. In fact let's go further and say that those people's lives are irrelevant, or unavoidable losses, because they were going to die soon anyway. In fact, let's assume the same for everyone over the age of 75 (who I presume make up the vast majority of the LTC deaths as well). They were close to death anyway, and Covid just got them there a little faster. We're still left with more than 93000 deaths and counting. Deaths that can't be blamed on long term care facilities, or even age. Deaths in people who might have lived for 30+ more years in many cases. Certainly nursing homes and the very elderly may deserve special and additional protections, but claiming that because old, frail, and colocated people are highly impacted that we could relax is a disservice to all of the not-old, not-frail, and not-colocated people who still may need protection. And I think you're vastly exaggerating the impact, both on the economy, and on the way of life, that a well managed set of guidelines have. Mask mandates + closure of certain non-essential businesses + restrictions on others means that relatively few things shut down. Certainly some do, your mall and movie theater may have trouble, but grocery stores and restaraunts can and are surviving and adapting (and imo the changes to enable urban outdoor dining that are happening in SF, Chicago, and other cities aren't a change that should be repaired, they should be embraced).