I'm not convinced that's right. Somebody who incorrectly believes their belief is backed by data may be less inclined to change their mind than somebody who re

I'm not convinced that's right. Somebody who incorrectly believes their belief is backed by data may be less inclined to change their mind than somebody who recognizes that their belief isn't backed by data and consequently has a good chance of being wrong. In other words, the chance that your belief is correct or incorrect matters, but your inclination to reevaluate your belief is also something to consider. Cherrypicking data to support your beliefs or various forms of inadvertent p-hacking may make people feel quite certain of things that actually aren't true.