7 ms·

For anyone who is skeptical of the statistics, the response is to ask them to explain excess deaths. In America there are over 200k excess deaths; if not COVID,

For anyone who is skeptical of the statistics, the response is to ask them to explain excess deaths. In America there are over 200k excess deaths; if not COVID, then why did so many more people die?

minkzilla 6y ago
Preface: I believe the pandemic is real and covid is deadly. People argue that increases in death could also be attributed to suicide, deteriorating health from mental hardship of stress and quarantine, and people not seeking medical treatment they need because they are scared of covid or because they cannot afford it with so much unemployment. I think the last one holds some water. I know of one person in my hometown who chose not to go to the hospital because he was scared of covid and ended up dying of a heart attack.
- salmon30salmon 6y ago
  A lot of clinics are doing "video only" visits. These are not nearly sufficient to accurately diagnose a patient. A good deal of clinical visits is assessing the overall manner and appearance of a patient. This can't be done remotely. Nor can BP, EKG, O2 or any other basic diagnostic tools be done remotely. Minor things that could be detected in a normal office visit are missed and turn into things which can kill.
- DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
  If the US were to get the epidemic under control, then those people would be able to go to the hospital without fearing CoVID-19.
  - minkzilla 6y ago
    I think they could also go to the hospital right now. But I think that needs to be communicated; some sort of message telling people “Covid is serious but so are a lot of other health issues if you think you need medical help get it!”
salmon30salmon 6y ago
The response to COVID. Delayed treatment for heart conditions being a major source of death. Alzheimer's deaths are up a lot this year as well, and isolation exacerbates Alzheimer's. Suicides are up, as are overdoses and murders. Yes, COVID has killed a _lot_ of people, but so has the response to COVID. We focused all resources on one enemy while other allies of Death stalked in the back door.
- DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
  If you don't respond to the epidemic, the healthcare system gets overloaded, and other care suffers. The best way to make sure everyone can get regular medical care is to get control of the epidemic. China, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand and other countries have done so.
  - salmon30salmon 6y ago
    China has done so with restrictions that would never fly in the West, in that they are illegal or unconstitutional. New Zealand did so by virtue of being an island and thus having tight border control. South Korea and Vietnam are interesting cases, we should learn more from them. In the case of Vietnam, I do wonder how many cases are undetected. Also, in the case of Vietnam, only 14% of their population is over 55 years old, whereas 29% of the USA is over 55 (and 31% of Belgium, another hard hit country). Seeing as this disease hits people over 55 the hardest (and is barely noticed in those under 30), it is no wonder Vietnam is seeing less of an issue here. It seems age demographics _could_ have more correlation with outcomes than any government intervention. That of course doesn't explain Vietnam entirely. Also keep in mind, Vietnam has only administered 12,000 test per 1 million people, whereas the USA has administered 492,000 per 1 million.
    - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
      Like China, Vietnam nearly eliminated the virus within their borders. Demographics affect the mortality rate, but in order to eradicate the virus, you need much more than just favorable demographics.
aga98mtl 6y ago
Exactly the proper metric is excess death. Comparing cases and "covid" death between countries who use different methodologies is bad. The EU publishes up to date data here: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality
wallacoloo 6y ago
It’s not that simple either though. I’ve heard that many people are postponing operations and treatments for existing conditions because of lockdowns, or fear of getting COVID should they go in for treatment, thereby making their existing condition more fatal. Many in my own family have chosen to skip regular checkups during COVID. Strictly speaking, excess deaths here are not due directly to COVID, but due to our response to COVID. And maybe the trade off is worth it, but we can’t tell just by looking at the excess deaths under one type of response. Comparing excess deaths between US and Sweden is maybe a bit more bulletproof. If — at the end of this — Sweden has fewer excess deaths than the US, then their response was in some measures more effective than ours. But there’s so much going on, we still won’t know for certain for quite a while.
- zebrafish 6y ago
  But the death certificate covid deaths match up pretty closely to excess deaths. I'm sure there are a number of those excess deaths that are from postponing care, but surely you don't think that there have been that many excess suicides and untreated emergencies. Surely people are not suggesting that all of the coroners in the country are in cahoots on a conspiracy to inflate covid numbers.
- nemothekid 6y ago
  >It’s not that simple either though. I’ve heard that many people are postponing operations and treatments for existing conditions because of lockdowns, or fear of getting COVID should they go in for treatment, thereby making their existing condition more fatal. Here is a chart of excess deaths: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm The problem with arguments like these, is for America at least, why does the number of people who have a fear of medical care trend so closely with number of cases?
Viliam1234 6y ago
> In America there are over 200k excess deaths; if not COVID, then why did so many more people die? I predict that a few months later, a popular answer will be "they were actually killed by the vaccine". (Bookmarking this comment so that I can keep linking it when this actually happens.)
moosey 6y ago
It's fine to be skeptical, but there are so many layers of expertise here: statisticians, epidemiologists, medical personnel. This multilayered denial of expertise is, well, troubling.

For anyone who is skeptical of the statistics, the response is to ask them to explain excess deaths. In America there are over 200k excess deaths; if not COVID, then why did so many more people die?

minkzilla 6y ago

Preface: I believe the pandemic is real and covid is deadly. People argue that increases in death could also be attributed to suicide, deteriorating health from mental hardship of stress and quarantine, and people not seeking medical treatment they need because they are scared of covid or because they cannot afford it with so much unemployment. I think the last one holds some water. I know of one person in my hometown who chose not to go to the hospital because he was scared of covid and ended up dying of a heart attack.

salmon30salmon 6y ago
A lot of clinics are doing "video only" visits. These are not nearly sufficient to accurately diagnose a patient. A good deal of clinical visits is assessing the overall manner and appearance of a patient. This can't be done remotely. Nor can BP, EKG, O2 or any other basic diagnostic tools be done remotely. Minor things that could be detected in a normal office visit are missed and turn into things which can kill.
DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
If the US were to get the epidemic under control, then those people would be able to go to the hospital without fearing CoVID-19.
- minkzilla 6y ago
  I think they could also go to the hospital right now. But I think that needs to be communicated; some sort of message telling people “Covid is serious but so are a lot of other health issues if you think you need medical help get it!”

salmon30salmon 6y ago

The response to COVID. Delayed treatment for heart conditions being a major source of death. Alzheimer's deaths are up a lot this year as well, and isolation exacerbates Alzheimer's. Suicides are up, as are overdoses and murders. Yes, COVID has killed a _lot_ of people, but so has the response to COVID. We focused all resources on one enemy while other allies of Death stalked in the back door.

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
If you don't respond to the epidemic, the healthcare system gets overloaded, and other care suffers. The best way to make sure everyone can get regular medical care is to get control of the epidemic. China, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand and other countries have done so.
- salmon30salmon 6y ago
  China has done so with restrictions that would never fly in the West, in that they are illegal or unconstitutional. New Zealand did so by virtue of being an island and thus having tight border control. South Korea and Vietnam are interesting cases, we should learn more from them. In the case of Vietnam, I do wonder how many cases are undetected. Also, in the case of Vietnam, only 14% of their population is over 55 years old, whereas 29% of the USA is over 55 (and 31% of Belgium, another hard hit country). Seeing as this disease hits people over 55 the hardest (and is barely noticed in those under 30), it is no wonder Vietnam is seeing less of an issue here. It seems age demographics _could_ have more correlation with outcomes than any government intervention. That of course doesn't explain Vietnam entirely. Also keep in mind, Vietnam has only administered 12,000 test per 1 million people, whereas the USA has administered 492,000 per 1 million.
  - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
    Like China, Vietnam nearly eliminated the virus within their borders. Demographics affect the mortality rate, but in order to eradicate the virus, you need much more than just favorable demographics.

aga98mtl 6y ago

Exactly the proper metric is excess death. Comparing cases and "covid" death between countries who use different methodologies is bad. The EU publishes up to date data here: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality

wallacoloo 6y ago

It’s not that simple either though. I’ve heard that many people are postponing operations and treatments for existing conditions because of lockdowns, or fear of getting COVID should they go in for treatment, thereby making their existing condition more fatal. Many in my own family have chosen to skip regular checkups during COVID. Strictly speaking, excess deaths here are not due directly to COVID, but due to our response to COVID. And maybe the trade off is worth it, but we can’t tell just by looking at the excess deaths under one type of response. Comparing excess deaths between US and Sweden is maybe a bit more bulletproof. If — at the end of this — Sweden has fewer excess deaths than the US, then their response was in some measures more effective than ours. But there’s so much going on, we still won’t know for certain for quite a while.

zebrafish 6y ago
But the death certificate covid deaths match up pretty closely to excess deaths. I'm sure there are a number of those excess deaths that are from postponing care, but surely you don't think that there have been that many excess suicides and untreated emergencies. Surely people are not suggesting that all of the coroners in the country are in cahoots on a conspiracy to inflate covid numbers.
nemothekid 6y ago
>It’s not that simple either though. I’ve heard that many people are postponing operations and treatments for existing conditions because of lockdowns, or fear of getting COVID should they go in for treatment, thereby making their existing condition more fatal. Here is a chart of excess deaths: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm The problem with arguments like these, is for America at least, why does the number of people who have a fear of medical care trend so closely with number of cases?

Viliam1234 6y ago

> In America there are over 200k excess deaths; if not COVID, then why did so many more people die? I predict that a few months later, a popular answer will be "they were actually killed by the vaccine". (Bookmarking this comment so that I can keep linking it when this actually happens.)

moosey 6y ago

It's fine to be skeptical, but there are so many layers of expertise here: statisticians, epidemiologists, medical personnel. This multilayered denial of expertise is, well, troubling.