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Your comment about Stadia gave me this thought. What odds would I be willing to bet that Stadia would be around in 5 years. I wouldn't take a even money bet. Ma

• theptip 6y ago
  It's an interesting question, I think i'd give it less than 10% but above 1%. It's outside their core competency, it involves them negotiating with rightsholders, and there's a bunch of competition coming from existing companies in the space (e.g. Microsoft, NVidia, etc.). As I can see, their only edge is that they own a global content delivery network which in the best case might be able to give them a few years' head-start in terms of performance vs. other players that don't own IP infrastructure. (It's a recent development that cloud-hosted gaming is even viable from a latency perspective). But that doesn't seem like the core long-term problem; it might give you a first-mover advantage but I don't see that being enough to build a defensible moat in this space.