4 ms·

If you still own any Intel stock it is probably good time to dump it. Not only can't they compete with AMD, Apple now started running circles around them all.

If you still own any Intel stock it is probably good time to dump it. Not only can't they compete with AMD, Apple now started running circles around them all. I wonder what the world is going to be like when companies own entire stack including all hardware (even things like cameras and displays) and applications (including app stores). There is going to be no competition as any new player would have to first join an existing stack that keeps tight grip and ensures competition is killed off before gaining momentum. So, basically, dystopian future with whole world divided into company territories.

sz4kerto 6y ago
The industry is not moving _this fast_. Intel still has many-many opportunities (and years) to catch up. > If you still own any Intel stock it is probably good time to dump it. The market already has the information you have, so it is unlikely that your evaluation of Intel's expected future profits is significantly better/more insightful that others'.
- typon 6y ago
  > The market already has the information you have, so it is unlikely that your evaluation of Intel's expected future profits is significantly better/more insightful that others' This is religion
  - sz4kerto 6y ago
    I am not saying the market is perfect, etc., just that looking at benchmarks and deciding that the stock must be overvalued because the benchmarks don't look good is an oversimplification.
    - selectodude 6y ago
      "According to the analysts at Geekbench, Intel is doomed."
  - colinmhayes 6y ago
    Except there's actual math to back it up. Doesn't mean it's true, but there's an argument other than faith.
selectodude 6y ago
>If you still own any Intel stock it is probably good time to dump it. Until Intel stops making huge amounts of money, I'm not sure, as a company, they're in huge trouble. Apple isn't going to be selling the M1 to other companies and other companies have proven they don't have the mettle to spend what Apple is spending to make chips like this. Really, AMD should be a little worried since they have some counterparty risk getting all of their chips made by TSMC. At least Intel controls their own production.
- Mindwipe 6y ago
  > Really, AMD should be a little worried since they have some counterparty risk getting all of their chips made by TSMC. At least Intel controls their own production. Chip fab is probably a short term risk but not a medium long term one, as the situation with Huawei has made it very clear to world governments that having competitive chip fab capabilities is incredibly important from a geopolitical power point of view. I would expect to see significant investment by various governments in the next ten years into addressing it. (If you have a proven skillset in that area and no particular ties to the country you live in I would look into buying a yacht.)
- lmilcin 6y ago
  Stock value is a view on future, not current financial situation of the company, with relation to what existing market thinks it is going to be. By buying stock you say: I believe the company is going to be better than the market thinks it is going to be.
  - colinmhayes 6y ago
    And the market currently has intel at a price/earning of 9. Pretty much the lowest of any tech company. If you have any semblance of hope for intel it's a solid buy.
  - selectodude 6y ago
    Stock value is a view on whatever people want to think it is. If you look at pure financials, INTC is very undervalued. It's a dividend stock, it's trading at a PE of 9. Do we really think that Intel has lower growth potential than Exxon or AT&T?
hans1729 6y ago
> 'There is going to be no competition' this is what some of the intricate systems related to technological progress and markets we're dealing with converge on, yes. In these terms, I'd rather look at this with a different perspective: the platforms are becoming more mature. Think of it as an organism; there is nothing natural about outsourcing the control flow of your own components. My intuition for natural design would be something along the lines of microservices (like our biological organs), organically defining the greater entity they themselves form (the company). Apple is just one illustration of systems getting out of control. Think of international politics, or edgecases in financial markets. Our systems didn't escape us, because they were never truly under control. Therefore, this isn't dystopian. It is dystopian from a reference frame within wich you claim to have control, but you don't, and you never had. To exercize any control over technological and economic progress is _way_ beyond our individual scope, by a margin of at least one level of abstraction. Instead, this is a transition from one system (one with decentralized and autonomous components (subcontractors et al)) to the next (one with organic components). Within our current game, that feels dystopian, but that won't matter, because it won't be the same game anymore. Iteratively, that is.
pjmlp 6y ago
Outside HN like bubble circles, very few companies actually bother to buy AMD, and ARM is no match for servers, neither is Apple going to sell their chips to third parties. Intel can still do as many mistakes as they feel like it, and AMD better hold on to their game console deals.
- wu_187 6y ago
  This simply isn't true. I just spun up a new instance on Oracle cloud, and it came with AMD CPUs. If AMD is selling to cloud providers Intel is fucked.
  - pjmlp 6y ago
    I specifically stated outside HN bubble and AMD is worthless without access to Intel patents.
    - forcemajeure 6y ago
      Oracle cloud is part of the HN bubble? From what I gather AWS also offers AMD and ARM-based instances. I don't see how it benefits the cloud providers not to offer these choices. No one benefits from a monopoly and they want to drive the cost of their services down.

sz4kerto 6y ago

The industry is not moving _this fast_. Intel still has many-many opportunities (and years) to catch up. > If you still own any Intel stock it is probably good time to dump it. The market already has the information you have, so it is unlikely that your evaluation of Intel's expected future profits is significantly better/more insightful that others'.

typon 6y ago
> The market already has the information you have, so it is unlikely that your evaluation of Intel's expected future profits is significantly better/more insightful that others' This is religion
- sz4kerto 6y ago
  I am not saying the market is perfect, etc., just that looking at benchmarks and deciding that the stock must be overvalued because the benchmarks don't look good is an oversimplification.
  - selectodude 6y ago
    "According to the analysts at Geekbench, Intel is doomed."
- colinmhayes 6y ago
  Except there's actual math to back it up. Doesn't mean it's true, but there's an argument other than faith.

selectodude 6y ago

>If you still own any Intel stock it is probably good time to dump it. Until Intel stops making huge amounts of money, I'm not sure, as a company, they're in huge trouble. Apple isn't going to be selling the M1 to other companies and other companies have proven they don't have the mettle to spend what Apple is spending to make chips like this. Really, AMD should be a little worried since they have some counterparty risk getting all of their chips made by TSMC. At least Intel controls their own production.

Mindwipe 6y ago
> Really, AMD should be a little worried since they have some counterparty risk getting all of their chips made by TSMC. At least Intel controls their own production. Chip fab is probably a short term risk but not a medium long term one, as the situation with Huawei has made it very clear to world governments that having competitive chip fab capabilities is incredibly important from a geopolitical power point of view. I would expect to see significant investment by various governments in the next ten years into addressing it. (If you have a proven skillset in that area and no particular ties to the country you live in I would look into buying a yacht.)
lmilcin 6y ago
Stock value is a view on future, not current financial situation of the company, with relation to what existing market thinks it is going to be. By buying stock you say: I believe the company is going to be better than the market thinks it is going to be.
- colinmhayes 6y ago
  And the market currently has intel at a price/earning of 9. Pretty much the lowest of any tech company. If you have any semblance of hope for intel it's a solid buy.
- selectodude 6y ago
  Stock value is a view on whatever people want to think it is. If you look at pure financials, INTC is very undervalued. It's a dividend stock, it's trading at a PE of 9. Do we really think that Intel has lower growth potential than Exxon or AT&T?

hans1729 6y ago

> 'There is going to be no competition' this is what some of the intricate systems related to technological progress and markets we're dealing with converge on, yes. In these terms, I'd rather look at this with a different perspective: the platforms are becoming more mature. Think of it as an organism; there is nothing natural about outsourcing the control flow of your own components. My intuition for natural design would be something along the lines of microservices (like our biological organs), organically defining the greater entity they themselves form (the company). Apple is just one illustration of systems getting out of control. Think of international politics, or edgecases in financial markets. Our systems didn't escape us, because they were never truly under control. Therefore, this isn't dystopian. It is dystopian from a reference frame within wich you claim to have control, but you don't, and you never had. To exercize any control over technological and economic progress is _way_ beyond our individual scope, by a margin of at least one level of abstraction. Instead, this is a transition from one system (one with decentralized and autonomous components (subcontractors et al)) to the next (one with organic components). Within our current game, that feels dystopian, but that won't matter, because it won't be the same game anymore. Iteratively, that is.

pjmlp 6y ago

Outside HN like bubble circles, very few companies actually bother to buy AMD, and ARM is no match for servers, neither is Apple going to sell their chips to third parties. Intel can still do as many mistakes as they feel like it, and AMD better hold on to their game console deals.

wu_187 6y ago
This simply isn't true. I just spun up a new instance on Oracle cloud, and it came with AMD CPUs. If AMD is selling to cloud providers Intel is fucked.
- pjmlp 6y ago
  I specifically stated outside HN bubble and AMD is worthless without access to Intel patents.
  - forcemajeure 6y ago
    Oracle cloud is part of the HN bubble? From what I gather AWS also offers AMD and ARM-based instances. I don't see how it benefits the cloud providers not to offer these choices. No one benefits from a monopoly and they want to drive the cost of their services down.