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> but Trump increased his votes among both blacks and hispanics in 2020 compared to 2016. FWIW, that's not true, or more accurately is unknown. Those numbers
by timoth3y 6y ago
> but Trump increased his votes among both blacks and hispanics in 2020 compared to 2016.
FWIW, that's not true, or more accurately is unknown.
Those numbers come from election-day exit polling, and since many more Democratic voters voted by mail or voted early than Republican voters, exit polling skews Republican in 2020.
It would be quite interesting to see if those numbers hold up when corrected for the percentage of Democratic mail-in voters, but I don't know of anyone who has done that yet.
- Qwertious 6y agoWait, are we talking more black voters proportionally, or more votes absolutely? AIUI there's simply been flat-out more voters in the 2020 election on every side, so saying "more X voters voted for trump" might be technically provable today but not very useful. Proportions are harder to pin down, as an accurate "X%" necessarily requires knowing the full set (or at least a random sample, and votes are being counted as they come in rather than in a random order).
- timoth3y 6y agoExit polling showed that a higher proportion of back and minority voters voted for Trump in 2020 than in 2016. However, since exit polling only counts those who vote on election day, and far more Democrats voted early or by mail than Republicans, we don't know to what extent those numbers are representative of voters as a whole. I'd love to see that analysis, but AFAIK no one has done it yet.