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Fermi estimate: there have been 10000 experiments of 10L each for a year. That gives 10000L-years. There are ~10^21 liters of water on the Earth. Let’s say life
by thechao 6y ago
Fermi estimate: there have been 10000 experiments of 10L each for a year. That gives 10000L-years. There are ~10^21 liters of water on the Earth. Let’s say life took a billion years to start. 21+9-4=>10^26x.
Let’s say the labs are 99.999999 “efficient” compared to the oceans. That carved off 8 decades, meaning Earth’s experiment was still a million million million times bigger.
- dhimes 6y agoBut, as the article points out, the size of the oceans may actually work against that by diluting the possibility of getting the correct concentration of ingredients.
- simonh 6y agoOk so let’s say the conditions only occurred for one day each year, in a one litre puddle. Over just a one hundred million year period. I think that’s an extremely conservative estimate. Let’s say I have a huge lab and we have 1,000 one litre experiments running continuously. It would still take me 274 years going non stop to recreate the conditions.
- dhimes 6y agoWell I hope the researchers aren't pursuing this randomly.