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The polls were not great this cycle, but the 538 forecast, which is mostly polls-based, still correctly predicted 48/50 of the states in this election. If you w
by esoterica 6y ago
The polls were not great this cycle, but the 538 forecast, which is mostly polls-based, still correctly predicted 48/50 of the states in this election. If you went an entire cycle without looking at a single poll, or reading a single piece of media informed by a poll, do you think you could do better than 48/50?
- icedistilled 6y agoCorrectly predicting is not a badge of honor if the numbers are way off. As an extreme hypothetical, if he'd predicted California to be Biden+40 and it was actually Biden+10 that would be correctly predicting who won but it would also be a massive polling failure. If the numbers land outside the predicted margins, it's bad polling regardless of whether the binary decision was right.