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https://www.essence.com/news/politics/55-percent-white-women-trump-election-2020/ https://www.essence.com/news/politics/55-percent-white-women...

dragonwriter 6y ago
This is based on exit polls. Exit polls only interview people who vote in person, which may be generally be useful, but in this election are an enormously systematically biased slice of the electorate. You really can't base any generalizations beyond the in-person voting segment based on them.
- AnthonyMouse 6y ago
  > This is based on exit polls. Are there some other measurements based on something else, or is it something we now can never know as a result of mail in ballots having no polling and an expected different statistical distribution?
  - irrational 6y ago
    I suggest looking at states like Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, etc. that only do mail in voting and see how they measure what used to be measured by exit polls.
  - tptacek 6y ago
    Exits aren't great in the best circumstances, but early unweighted exits are widely believed to be almost completely useless.
  - dragonwriter 6y ago
    > Are there some other measurements based on something else For 2016 and 2018, Pew had validated voter datasets, based on people in their American Trends Panel who were matched against voter databases and thus known to have voted. Assuming they do the same thing (or some other reputable firm does something similar, or ideally both) for 2020, that would probably be the best data source.
- rayiner 6y ago
  At least with the NYT exit polls, they included phone interviews to account for mail in voters. Here is a more systematic post-election analysis, based on a huge survey (100,000+ respondents), from Fox/Associated Press/U Chicago: https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter... This one shows significantly lower Black vote for Trump than the Essence article (12% of men, 6% of women) but an even higher Latino vote (39% of men, 32% of women). Both sets of data show Trump losing support from white men slightly. (Which is consistent with pre-election polling.)
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
tptacek 6y ago
The votes haven't even been fully counted (NY has barely started with their mail-ins), so the exits aren't weighted yet. There are, so far as I know, no valid takes to be made from current exit data.
- joijoiwejrr 6y ago
  I posted this elsewhere in the thread but even without exit polls we can make some reasonably solid conclusions from geographical voting data: https://sweep.thedispatch.com/p/the-sweep-dont-trust-the-exits-do https://sweep.thedispatch.com/p/the-sweep-dont-trust-the-exi... At this point it seems pretty clear that Trump made big gains among Latinos compared to 2016; with other demographics the jury is still out (I think.)
  - tptacek 6y ago
    You don't need exits to know that; there were sharp swings towards Trump in majority-Latino south Texas counties.
    - awerawerawrjhui 6y ago
      Um... that's exactly what the post you're replying to says?

dragonwriter 6y ago

This is based on exit polls. Exit polls only interview people who vote in person, which may be generally be useful, but in this election are an enormously systematically biased slice of the electorate. You really can't base any generalizations beyond the in-person voting segment based on them.

AnthonyMouse 6y ago
> This is based on exit polls. Are there some other measurements based on something else, or is it something we now can never know as a result of mail in ballots having no polling and an expected different statistical distribution?
- irrational 6y ago
  I suggest looking at states like Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, etc. that only do mail in voting and see how they measure what used to be measured by exit polls.
- tptacek 6y ago
  Exits aren't great in the best circumstances, but early unweighted exits are widely believed to be almost completely useless.
- dragonwriter 6y ago
  > Are there some other measurements based on something else For 2016 and 2018, Pew had validated voter datasets, based on people in their American Trends Panel who were matched against voter databases and thus known to have voted. Assuming they do the same thing (or some other reputable firm does something similar, or ideally both) for 2020, that would probably be the best data source.
rayiner 6y ago
At least with the NYT exit polls, they included phone interviews to account for mail in voters. Here is a more systematic post-election analysis, based on a huge survey (100,000+ respondents), from Fox/Associated Press/U Chicago: https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter... This one shows significantly lower Black vote for Trump than the Essence article (12% of men, 6% of women) but an even higher Latino vote (39% of men, 32% of women). Both sets of data show Trump losing support from white men slightly. (Which is consistent with pre-election polling.)
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

tptacek 6y ago

The votes haven't even been fully counted (NY has barely started with their mail-ins), so the exits aren't weighted yet. There are, so far as I know, no valid takes to be made from current exit data.

joijoiwejrr 6y ago
I posted this elsewhere in the thread but even without exit polls we can make some reasonably solid conclusions from geographical voting data: https://sweep.thedispatch.com/p/the-sweep-dont-trust-the-exits-do https://sweep.thedispatch.com/p/the-sweep-dont-trust-the-exi... At this point it seems pretty clear that Trump made big gains among Latinos compared to 2016; with other demographics the jury is still out (I think.)
- tptacek 6y ago
  You don't need exits to know that; there were sharp swings towards Trump in majority-Latino south Texas counties.
  - awerawerawrjhui 6y ago
    Um... that's exactly what the post you're replying to says?