I hadn't considered the "unfalsifiable" aspect of my comment. I think you make a good point. At a poker table you get a high number of events to check against

I hadn't considered the "unfalsifiable" aspect of my comment. I think you make a good point. At a poker table you get a high number of events to check against but a presidential election is only once every 4 years. I wonder how accurate the local elections are vs the national? If neither is accurate, then that's a strong case for your point of view and a change in methodology.