7 ms·
Its not "lucky" at all, this was an orchestrated outcome. Theres 2 components to this: 1. Mail in ballots were heavily partisan. The president made a point to
by DeRock 6y ago
Its not "lucky" at all, this was an orchestrated outcome. Theres 2 components to this:
1. Mail in ballots were heavily partisan. The president made a point to instruct Republican voters to vote in person, and not by mail. And many other correlated factors (eg. COVID and social distancing has also been heavily politicized, influencing whether a voter would vote in person vs mail in).
2. Mail in ballots were delayed. This happened both legally (https://www.npr.org/2020/10/14/922202497/in-swing-states-laws-add-pressure-prevent-officials-from-processing-ballots-earl https://www.npr.org/2020/10/14/922202497/in-swing-states-law...), as well as though strategic dismantling of USPS mail processing facilities.
And now this pre-meditated orchestration, set up by a Republican president and Republican State house, is being used as evidence of some grand conspiracy. Its not, and has been predictable for months now, with countless news articles about it.
- m0zg 6y agoDid this only happen in swing states and VA though? And why does drift happen _well after_ in-person vote is already counted? And do you have data to support your point #1? Because people claim that, but I don't really see any evidence to support the claim.
- DeRock 6y agoBecause mail delays were strategic against the swing states. Florida, for example, where they're allowed to count mail in votes well before election day, did not see much shift in voting ratios as time went on. Have you done any searching for evidence? It is trivially easy to find. Paper looking at partisan voting methods: https://www.pnas.org/content/117/40/24640 https://www.pnas.org/content/117/40/24640 One of the presidents attempts to discredit mail in voting: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1288818160389558273?lang=en https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/12888181603895582... And of bigger importance, the election that just occurred, where mail in ballots were heavily partisan.
- InitialLastName 6y agoIt's substantially more noticeable in swing states because they're swing states and by definition divided roughly 50/50 on partisan lines (really usually 30/30/30[undecided/independent], but the latter varies from place to place). If a state is more heavily tilted one way than the other, the day-of vote is more likely to be just as representative of that tilt as the mail-in vote, especially if you stop paying attention when the state gets called (which was as soon as polls closed for many of the states whose tendencies were more obvious). To add, urban areas have been more heavily hit by covid (so are more likely to vote by mail) and even the in-person vote count in cities takes longer to count. Even in 2016, IIRC Clinton started to (ultimately unsuccessfully) close the gap in MI and WI later at night as the vote counts from Detroit and Milwaukee trickled in. edit: to balance parens
- dragonwriter 6y ago> Did this only happen in swing states and VA though? I see no evidence that this is the case, but certainly you'd expect differences in the apparent pattern based on state ballot counting procedures. Swing states get a lot more attention, and in addition, the swing states where the effect has been noticed plus Virginia all delay even the beginning of mail-in ballot processing to election day, some not allowing ballot counts of mail-in ballots until after the polls close. So, that forces any systematic differences in mail-in ballots to also produce aystematic differences in vote count over time, whereas systems where the mail-in ballots are preprocessed well before election day and have no required delay after the polls close for counting don't systematically create that issue.
- newacct583 6y ago> why does drift happen _well after_ in-person vote is already counted? Where is the evidence for this? Most states weren't particularly clear about exactly which ballots were being counted when, and didn't report distinct ballot cohorts. The GA data (where they were really good about it after Tuesday) doesn't show the effect you're talking about. [edit: OK, you're just repeating this point without evidence again and again in this topic, despite being repeatedly asked for a citation. That doesn't seem like rational discussion, and I suspect you're just being a troll.]
- ineedasername 6y agoTrack late vote tallies in other states. They shifted Democratic as well. This is why the popular vote count has shifted by about 2,000,000 votes from around election day, even though the counts in the states getting close attention have shifted only by a fraction of that amount. Data is there to fully support this trend, it is not just a PA, Georgia, etc thing. And point #1 is fully supported by the most trivial search to see what President Trump has been saying about mail voting for months, up to & including attempts to make it harder, leading supporters of President Trump to believe the best way to have their vote be counted was to vote in person. https://apnews.com/article/14a2ceda724623604cc8d8e5ab9890ed https://apnews.com/article/14a2ceda724623604cc8d8e5ab9890ed
- djsumdog 6y agoExactly! We didn't see any issues in any non-contested areas. We're seeing serious problems in Detroit, Philly, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Las Vegas. But we didn't see any issues at all in Miami, or Cleveland, or Iowa City, or Cincinnati, or Dallas, or Nashville, or Houston. All of the other states and cities were able to get their ballots counted. The irregularities in these key cities is highly suspected, especially after one State senate race was already overturned in a manual recount, where they discovered 6,000 votes were cast to the wrong presidential party due to 'bugs' in the voting machine software .. and that software is used in 40+ counties. All of those votes are going to need to be manually counted now. As more work is done and the recounts being, I predict the differences between the hand and machine counts is going to be a significant indicator of election interference. This is on its way to be the most contested election in history.
- aw1621107 6y ago> All of the other states and cities were able to get their ballots counted. One has to be careful that comparisons are made between comparable entities. In this case, note that different states can begin processing absentee/mail-in votes at different times [0], so one state being able to handle absentee/mail-in vote processing without apparent incident does not necessarily say anything about how counting might progress in another state. > Detroit, Philly, ..., Milwaukee Absentee/mail-in vote processing/counting can only begin on Election Day. > Atlanta, ..., Las Vegas Signature verification can be performed upon receipt of the absentee/mail-in ballot, but actual counting can only start on Election Day > Miami Ballot verification/counting can start 22 days before Election Day > or Cleveland, ..., or Cincinnati Verification and scanning can occur before Election Day. Unclear whether "scanning" includes counting, or just how far ahead of time the process can start. > or Iowa City Affadavits may be reviewed the day before Election Day, but counting can only start on Election Day (and must be finished by 10 P.M. on Election Day) > Or Dallas, ..., or Houston Verification can be performed upon receipt. Jurisdictions with <= 100k people, counting starts on Election Day; for larger jurisdictions, counting can start at the end of the early voting by personal appearance period, which I think is 4 days before Election Day [1] > or Nashville Verification can be performed upon receipt, but counting can only start on Election Day. So in short, some of the examples of cities that count "without incident" can conceivably do so because they have much more time to do so. Iowa City and Nashville are better comparisons, but that doesn't rule out some other factor that renders the comparison invalid. > All of the other states and cities were able to get their ballots counted. Do they actually have all their ballots counted, or do they simply not show up in news stories? For example, Decision Desk HQ reports that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia have >99% of their ballots in, while Michigan, Kentucky, Utah, Alabama, Nevada, California, and Washington all are reported to have >95% of their ballots in. So by those metrics, states in the first group are doing better than states in the second group, but some states in the second group get attention heaped upon them, while others seemingly pass under the radar. New York is a particularly egregious example, with a reported 77.3-88.0% of its ballots in. And yet very little attention appears to be devoted to it. (This assumes DDHQ's numbers are actually reasonable/accurate, of course) > especially after one State senate race was already overturned in a manual recount, where they discovered 6,000 votes were cast to the wrong presidential party due to 'bugs' in the voting machine software You seem to be mixing some stories. From what I understand, the race whose results got reversed was for the Oakland County Board of Commissions [2]. The margin was 1127 votes. The 6000 vote reversal was from Antrim county. The Michigan Secretary of State has put out a statement about that specific incident [3], where they claim that the error was due to human error, not software error (though it's not entirely unreasonable to say the software is not entirely blameless, as pointed out in [4] by a University of Michigan professor who claims to have looked into the incident [5]), and that no manual recount was involved. [0]: https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-t... [1]: https://www.votetexas.gov/faq/early-voting.html https://www.votetexas.gov/faq/early-voting.html [2]: https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/oakland/2020/11/06/oakland-county-election-2020-race-results/6184186002/ https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/oakland/2020... [3]: https://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-127-93094-544676--,00.html https://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-127-93094-544676--,00.... [4]: https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/human-error-dominion-voting-equipment-fuel-false-fraud-claims-michigan https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/human-error-dom... [5]: https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/antrim-county-vote-glitch-software-update/6194745002/ https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/...
- commandlinefan 6y agoWhy just those states, though? Other states show more-or-less similar distributions of in-person to mail-in ballots. It's only these handful of swing states (WI, MI, PA, NV, GA) that have such a massively different ratio of votes in-person vs. mail-in.
- DeRock 6y agoWhat are you using for your source for vote totals by vote method to make that determination? Again, there was a time component here, where battleground states were strategically targeted to delay when votes would be counted. Feel free to read the source I posted above, or look at other state by state summaries here: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/battleground-states-process-mail-ballots-delayed-results/story?id=73717671 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/battleground-states-process-... You will see some difference in ratios by voting method regardless, however. For example, in Arizona, the fact that voting by mail has been common for years, makes it much less partisan.
- dragonwriter 6y ago> It's only these handful of swing states (WI, MI, PA, NV, GA) that have such a massively different ratio of votes in-person vs. mail-in. No, its not. Its only those states that got a lot of attention to their count because they were swing states; the states that were easy to project very early on, no one outside of the media decision desks making the call cared about the details. And lots of them didn't have rules separating and delaying the count of mail-in ballots, anyway, which meant that differences in mail-in ballot patterns (which there almost certainly were because of partisan differences in who voted mail-in, entirely predictable given partisan differences in advocacy for and against mail voting) wouldn't show up clearly in the count timing the way it does in places where the process delayed starting counting mail-in ballots.
- not2b 6y agoIn Florida, early votes were counted as soon as they were received. In Pennsylvania, by state law the early votes couldn't be counted until the polls closed. That's the main reason for the difference in timing and the large shift.
- BrandonMarc 6y ago# 1 would fit, if there were a proportionate number of mail-in ballots for Jo Jorgensen and Kanye West. If you have 10,000 ballots, some of those will be expected. Tens of thousands of Biden-only? Repeatedly? Doesn't pass the sniff test.
- DeRock 6y agoWhat does “Biden only” votes mean to you? Is that where you see vote totals jump for Biden, but not for any other candidate? Because your conclusion from that, that it’s obviously fraud, seems incredibly naive. The simple answer is they update candidate totals in chunks. Further, if someone was committing fraud, they could just add a few votes for other candidates to evade your detection. Your sniff test doesn’t pass my sniff test.
- m0zg 6y agoBiden-only means the ballot is marked _only_ for Biden, and not for any of the congress or local legislature candidates. That's unlikely as fuck, especially when such ballots come as a large batch or a series of large batches. That's what you do if you bought into the "Joe is ahead by 15%" polls and didn't have the time to make your scam believable at 4AM on November 4th.
- TrackerFF 6y agoFor PA Joe Biden: 3,376,367 Donald Trump: 3,326,687 Jo Jorgensen: 77,922 So, for every Jorgensen voter, there are approx. 43 Biden voters. I mean, if mail-ins were proportional, you'd expect Jorgensen to get what, between 100 and 200 mail-in ballots? But we know that Biden has a much higher ratio of mail-in ballots than Trump, and maybe Jorgensen voters are closer to Trump than Biden, in their voting habits? Just speculation. Same goes for Kanye West. Who knows how many of those votes were serious and planned, and how many were just for the "lols" at the polling station. Points is - both Jorgensen and West are so few compared to the rest, that seeing just tens to a couple of hundred votes per TEN thousand doesn't really seem out of place.
- zaroth 6y agoJust FYI, in regards to your the 2nd point, while there was rampant speculation about delivery delays, I don’t think there’s any evidence that ballots were actually delayed due to USPS, and quite strong evidence in fact that ballots were not delayed by USPS. Specifically, in PA where they were segregating late arriving ballots, only about 10,000 ballots arrived after 8pm on Election Day, and there’s no reason to believe those ballots weren’t delivered within the expected delivery timeframe and just mailed late. The USPS wrote a letter months ago trying to urge states to be sure their mailing cutoff timelines corresponded with USPS’s physical delivery timelines (e.g. basically, don’t let someone request a mail in ballot within 4 days of the election) and there was a massive over-reaction. In the end there has been no incidence of ballots not being delivered on time that I’ve seen.
- djsumdog 6y agoYou do realize GOP observers were thrown out in PA, and they put up bristol board so media observers couldn't see into the counting area right? They also violated orders by Justice Alito to keep mail in votes separate and votes by incoming date separate. Their State courts also rules to extend the voting deadline for mail-in, which goes against their own laws and may end up going against the constitution. PA has not been confirmed on some media sites; and been switched back to grey. It will likely make it to the Supreme Cort. Please stop spreading misinformation. There is a lot of credible voter irregularities. Due process violations occurred in PA and NV (observers not allowed access) and in Detroit (observers were told to go home when 120k votes came in at 4am .. and then those votes changed to 12k). There are a lot of questionable aspects to this election and they all need to be investigated. Please at least realize that investigation needs to happen. If there are no issues, investigations should not be a big deal. So far every state in question has been actively hindering transparency. This could turn into one of the most disputed elections of our time and the media is trying to dismiss all the irregularities. This is incredibly dangerous, as we could potentially see riots that would make May look like a Canadian hockey game after party.