3 ms·
For no particular reason, I feel very strongly that you could achieve much more accurate results by asking people to estimate what _they_ think the final margin
by ttamslam 6y ago
For no particular reason, I feel very strongly that you could achieve much more accurate results by asking people to estimate what _they_ think the final margin will be then average those results.
I'm inclined to think that community members know their community well enough that given a large enough sample, this average will trend towards the true result.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd
edit: A quick google search found: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289826354_Predicting_elections_A_%27Wisdom_of_Crowds%27_approach https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289826354_Predictin...
- mgraczyk 6y agoYou may find this specific technique interesting, in which you try to find the "expert minority" in the crowd, under the assumption that people who can better predict the crowd's belief can also better predict the true outcome: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surprisingly_popular https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surprisingly_popular
- ttamslam 6y agoThis is very interesting, thank you!
- dillondoyle 6y agoThere's actually some good research on that. Another source - i think i've read a couple journal articles on this https://academic.oup.com/poq/article/78/S1/204/1836551#xref-corresp-1-1 https://academic.oup.com/poq/article/78/S1/204/1836551#xref-...
- jedberg 6y agoA good way to get a good prediction is to ask how they think their neighbor will vote. A person who is ashamed of their selection will be much more willing to tell you what it is if they think you're asking about their neighbors.