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When and where was the last poll that predicted an election accurately? Polling is starting to feel more like a weather forecast - presented with absolute cert

When and where was the last poll that predicted an election accurately? Polling is starting to feel more like a weather forecast - presented with absolute certainty, only right about half the time.

TechBro8615 6y ago
Trafalgar group did a pretty good job this election. They were also lambasted by Democratic media and called wackos and nutjobs. Meanwhile WaPo put its name on a poll that had Biden +17 in WI.
- tptacek 6y ago
  No, they didn't. They were off by 4 in AZ (and called it for Trump), by 5 in Georgia (again for Trump), 6 in Michigan (again), 8 in Wisconsin (and again), and 3 in PA (which they, again, called for Trump). They were also off by 7 in Minneapolis (which they correctly called for Biden) and 6 in Ohio (which they correctly called for Trump). There was a narrative on e-day that Trafalgar had done a good job, because Democratic votes were disproportionately counted later in the week. But if you'd relied on Trafalgar predictions to allocate resources in an election, you'd have gotten depantsed.
  - tgb 6y ago
    Moreover the Trafalgar head of polling went on Fox a day before the election claiming that there would be 4% points of systematic election fraud happening in Pennsylvania. So "nutjob" and "wacko" would be underselling them. https://www.mediaite.com/tv/trafalgar-pollster-robert-cahaly-makes-baseless-claim-trump-will-win-pennsylvania-but-they-will-steal-it-with-voter-fraud/ https://www.mediaite.com/tv/trafalgar-pollster-robert-cahaly...
mindlar 6y ago
Some of the local ones have done well. The Des Moines, Iowa poll has been pretty close. The national polling firms are only getting airplay if they give the "right" result, the few groups that have been pretty accurate in 2016, 2018, and 2020 got very little media coverage due to not being close to the high profile ones and not having the results that CNN, ABC, NBC, etc. wanted to broadcast. That coupled with comments from some prominent Democratic politicians that they want to make lists of Trump supporters presumably to punish them for their actions, has a significant chilling effect on people being willing to vocalize their support for Trump to non-friendly or unknown people.
dragonwriter 6y ago
> When and where was the last poll that predicted an election accurately? Polls don't purport to predict elections; though people do poll-based forecasts. 538, for instance, does a lot of them every cycle. And seems to be fairly close on the odds, though generally the most-likely predicted outcome occurs at a slightly higher rate than their predictions.
rsynnott 6y ago
I mean, if you're looking for sub-1% accuracy, you're not going to get it, but polls are usually accurate to within a few percent. In the US, the last couple of elections were quite close, so fairly small misses had a big impact (at least in 2016; in 2020 the only state that was clearly a wrong call based on polls was Florida, and arguably Georgia). Notably, polls were generally fairly accurate for the US 2018 midterms. In general, polls work better in electoral systems where national polls are useful; the US presidential election in particular is challenging.
philjohn 6y ago
2018 midterm polls were pretty spot on.

When and where was the last poll that predicted an election accurately? Polling is starting to feel more like a weather forecast - presented with absolute certainty, only right about half the time.

TechBro8615 6y ago

Trafalgar group did a pretty good job this election. They were also lambasted by Democratic media and called wackos and nutjobs. Meanwhile WaPo put its name on a poll that had Biden +17 in WI.

tptacek 6y ago
No, they didn't. They were off by 4 in AZ (and called it for Trump), by 5 in Georgia (again for Trump), 6 in Michigan (again), 8 in Wisconsin (and again), and 3 in PA (which they, again, called for Trump). They were also off by 7 in Minneapolis (which they correctly called for Biden) and 6 in Ohio (which they correctly called for Trump). There was a narrative on e-day that Trafalgar had done a good job, because Democratic votes were disproportionately counted later in the week. But if you'd relied on Trafalgar predictions to allocate resources in an election, you'd have gotten depantsed.
- tgb 6y ago
  Moreover the Trafalgar head of polling went on Fox a day before the election claiming that there would be 4% points of systematic election fraud happening in Pennsylvania. So "nutjob" and "wacko" would be underselling them. https://www.mediaite.com/tv/trafalgar-pollster-robert-cahaly-makes-baseless-claim-trump-will-win-pennsylvania-but-they-will-steal-it-with-voter-fraud/ https://www.mediaite.com/tv/trafalgar-pollster-robert-cahaly...

mindlar 6y ago

Some of the local ones have done well. The Des Moines, Iowa poll has been pretty close. The national polling firms are only getting airplay if they give the "right" result, the few groups that have been pretty accurate in 2016, 2018, and 2020 got very little media coverage due to not being close to the high profile ones and not having the results that CNN, ABC, NBC, etc. wanted to broadcast. That coupled with comments from some prominent Democratic politicians that they want to make lists of Trump supporters presumably to punish them for their actions, has a significant chilling effect on people being willing to vocalize their support for Trump to non-friendly or unknown people.

dragonwriter 6y ago

> When and where was the last poll that predicted an election accurately? Polls don't purport to predict elections; though people do poll-based forecasts. 538, for instance, does a lot of them every cycle. And seems to be fairly close on the odds, though generally the most-likely predicted outcome occurs at a slightly higher rate than their predictions.

rsynnott 6y ago

I mean, if you're looking for sub-1% accuracy, you're not going to get it, but polls are usually accurate to within a few percent. In the US, the last couple of elections were quite close, so fairly small misses had a big impact (at least in 2016; in 2020 the only state that was clearly a wrong call based on polls was Florida, and arguably Georgia). Notably, polls were generally fairly accurate for the US 2018 midterms. In general, polls work better in electoral systems where national polls are useful; the US presidential election in particular is challenging.

philjohn 6y ago

2018 midterm polls were pretty spot on.