7 ms·

Maybe it doesn't really matter much. I mean, sure, we need some amount of polling because it informs decisions such as who gets to participate in televised deb

Maybe it doesn't really matter much. I mean, sure, we need some amount of polling because it informs decisions such as who gets to participate in televised debates, etc. But other than that, what does the general public get out of polling? It's a spectator sport. In the end, all that matters is the votes, and people should really be encouraged to remember this. I'd think 2016 and 2020 would be a healthy reminder of that.

ffggvv 6y ago
i could picture polling having an effect of suppressing the vote such as in 2016. where one side doesnt feel the need to vote since their candidate is the clear favorite.
smnrchrds 6y ago
> what does the general public get out of polling? The laypeople, not much. But for politically active people, not to mention political parties, polls are the best tool to determine where to do what. If you are way ahead in one race but neck and neck in another, it makes sense for parties and activists to focus their efforts and donations to the competitive race. There is never enough resources to focus on every race equally and to the fullest extent. Decisions need to be made. Polls are the best tool to make informed decisions.
- hundchenkatze 6y ago
  > polls are the best tool to determine where to do what Seems like that may not be the case anymore.
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  OK, but when some random pollster calls me, what do I get out of it if the parties can allocate their resources more effectively? That's not anywhere on my list of concerns. It lets you campaign more effectively? Great, go bother someone else.
  - smnrchrds 6y ago
    If political parties see, through polls, that their platform is not resonating with the populous, they will change their platform and policies. Decisions about future direction of the parties are not made in a vacuum. Polls are one of the feedback methods determining them.
    - chillacy 6y ago
      Yea as someone who lives in a non swing state it occurred to me that being polled would probably give my options the more influence than my actual vote.
yaacov 6y ago
Campaigns and parties buy polling and use it to make decisions on what messages to use, what races to invest in, etc. Those private polls were just as wrong as the public ones. From the campaigns perspective that’s wasted money.
francisofascii 6y ago
It gives people a better sense of the political preferences of the various parts of the country. In a weird sort of way, it helps validate the election results, even if the numbers are off. If you are a liberal living in SF and see Trump win in 2016, you might have seriously questioned the validity of the election results, if you didn't have numerous polls backing up that Trump did indeed have supporters.
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  > validate the election results This is one thing that I considered, but I wonder if exit polls would be a better choice. They're usually much more accurate than pre-election polls, so they serve as a hedge against large-scale fraud.
  - fwip 6y ago
    We do exit polls too.
buzzy_hacker 6y ago
Accurate polling is important because it lets politicians and journalists know what is politically possible. But, over-reliance on polls can prevent politicians from doing things that are right but unpopular. A great discussion on the role of polls can be found in this podcast episode https://pca.st/episode/c7683cc8-1031-45ac-ac0c-533aff34557b https://pca.st/episode/c7683cc8-1031-45ac-ac0c-533aff34557b Especially near the 27-minute mark
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  > lets politicians and journalists know what is politically possible Perhaps issue polling is much more useful than candidate polling.
_AzMoo 6y ago
Exit polls were historically used as a method of detecting election fraud, because they've always been very accurate. It's only the last few elections where we've seen such a large disparity in polling and actual results.
- macintux 6y ago
  Is exit polling no longer working? All of the discussion I’ve seen seems to focus on polling in advance of the election.
  - throwaway201103 6y ago
    Considering the trend for people to be socially canceled, scorned, and shamed for supporting the "wrong" candidate, yes I think exit polling (and all polling for that matter) are not working. People are much more likely to either decline to respond, or they will lie.
    - rootusrootus 6y ago
      > or they will lie Apparently that isn't a problem. Yet. But non-response is.
    - recursive 6y ago
      I think mail-in ballots are a much bigger problem for exit polling than fear of being cancelled. I cite no sources, just a hunch.
      - _AzMoo 6y ago
        They are actually both problems. The fear of being "cancelled" due to poll responses is called the Bradley Effect and definitely does apply to exit polls: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect#Exit_polling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect#Exit_polling
  - 0xffff2 6y ago
    Exit polling was basically meaningless in this election because mail in votes were the deciding factor.
throwaway201103 6y ago
Polling can be used to influence the public. Conduct a poll, ask some leading questions, and publish results that appear to show broad support for candidates or policies. This can be used to sway those undecided voters who are inclined to "go with the majority" or "vote for a winner"
6gvONxR4sf7o 6y ago
A lot of the common answers seem to amount to "it helps politicians and activists figure out what to say." Because apparently say whatever tests well is paramount.
eredengrin 6y ago
> I mean, sure, we need some amount of polling because it informs decisions such as who gets to participate in televised debates I would strongly disagree with this use of polling data. This is exactly how they justify locking out third party/independent candidates from the debates and preventing them from getting any traction, it's the two party duopoly at its finest (also how we end up with ironic tweets like [1]). I think a much better system would be that anyone who will be on the ballot in enough states to take the presidency (ie 270 electoral votes) should be included. Requiring being on the ballot in enough states ensures that there is a reasonable base level of support for the candidate (since it's not particularly easy to get on that many ballots) and is also an objective measure vs taking into account polls that might not even have many candidates as options. Even if that allows some candidates you might consider "unviable" to participate, I still say that's a good thing. At least it allows them to show their ideas for how to address various issues (which may influence the platforms of the larger parties if there appears to be broad support for it) and also allows them to potentially gain more support in the future. [1] https://twitter.com/GovGaryJohnson/status/1314679508184727554 https://twitter.com/GovGaryJohnson/status/131467950818472755...
ttesttom 6y ago
It's not just for politics. For example, it's used frequently in public health. There have been a ton of polls about mask wearing, whether someone would take a vaccine etc. that help guide public health policy makers and give them a semblance of an idea of where the public is at versus just guessing. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/10/poll-increasing-bipartisan-majority-americans-support-mask-wearing/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/10/poll-incr... https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2020/10/19/covid19-coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-racial-disparities/ https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2020/10/19/covid19-corona...

ffggvv 6y ago

i could picture polling having an effect of suppressing the vote such as in 2016. where one side doesnt feel the need to vote since their candidate is the clear favorite.

smnrchrds 6y ago

> what does the general public get out of polling? The laypeople, not much. But for politically active people, not to mention political parties, polls are the best tool to determine where to do what. If you are way ahead in one race but neck and neck in another, it makes sense for parties and activists to focus their efforts and donations to the competitive race. There is never enough resources to focus on every race equally and to the fullest extent. Decisions need to be made. Polls are the best tool to make informed decisions.

hundchenkatze 6y ago
> polls are the best tool to determine where to do what Seems like that may not be the case anymore.
AnimalMuppet 6y ago
OK, but when some random pollster calls me, what do I get out of it if the parties can allocate their resources more effectively? That's not anywhere on my list of concerns. It lets you campaign more effectively? Great, go bother someone else.
- smnrchrds 6y ago
  If political parties see, through polls, that their platform is not resonating with the populous, they will change their platform and policies. Decisions about future direction of the parties are not made in a vacuum. Polls are one of the feedback methods determining them.
  - chillacy 6y ago
    Yea as someone who lives in a non swing state it occurred to me that being polled would probably give my options the more influence than my actual vote.

yaacov 6y ago

Campaigns and parties buy polling and use it to make decisions on what messages to use, what races to invest in, etc. Those private polls were just as wrong as the public ones. From the campaigns perspective that’s wasted money.

francisofascii 6y ago

It gives people a better sense of the political preferences of the various parts of the country. In a weird sort of way, it helps validate the election results, even if the numbers are off. If you are a liberal living in SF and see Trump win in 2016, you might have seriously questioned the validity of the election results, if you didn't have numerous polls backing up that Trump did indeed have supporters.

rootusrootus 6y ago
> validate the election results This is one thing that I considered, but I wonder if exit polls would be a better choice. They're usually much more accurate than pre-election polls, so they serve as a hedge against large-scale fraud.
- fwip 6y ago
  We do exit polls too.

buzzy_hacker 6y ago

Accurate polling is important because it lets politicians and journalists know what is politically possible. But, over-reliance on polls can prevent politicians from doing things that are right but unpopular. A great discussion on the role of polls can be found in this podcast episode https://pca.st/episode/c7683cc8-1031-45ac-ac0c-533aff34557b https://pca.st/episode/c7683cc8-1031-45ac-ac0c-533aff34557b Especially near the 27-minute mark

rootusrootus 6y ago
> lets politicians and journalists know what is politically possible Perhaps issue polling is much more useful than candidate polling.

_AzMoo 6y ago

Exit polls were historically used as a method of detecting election fraud, because they've always been very accurate. It's only the last few elections where we've seen such a large disparity in polling and actual results.

macintux 6y ago
Is exit polling no longer working? All of the discussion I’ve seen seems to focus on polling in advance of the election.
- throwaway201103 6y ago
  Considering the trend for people to be socially canceled, scorned, and shamed for supporting the "wrong" candidate, yes I think exit polling (and all polling for that matter) are not working. People are much more likely to either decline to respond, or they will lie.
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    > or they will lie Apparently that isn't a problem. Yet. But non-response is.
  - recursive 6y ago
    I think mail-in ballots are a much bigger problem for exit polling than fear of being cancelled. I cite no sources, just a hunch.
    - _AzMoo 6y ago
      They are actually both problems. The fear of being "cancelled" due to poll responses is called the Bradley Effect and definitely does apply to exit polls: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect#Exit_polling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect#Exit_polling
- 0xffff2 6y ago
  Exit polling was basically meaningless in this election because mail in votes were the deciding factor.

throwaway201103 6y ago

Polling can be used to influence the public. Conduct a poll, ask some leading questions, and publish results that appear to show broad support for candidates or policies. This can be used to sway those undecided voters who are inclined to "go with the majority" or "vote for a winner"

6gvONxR4sf7o 6y ago

A lot of the common answers seem to amount to "it helps politicians and activists figure out what to say." Because apparently say whatever tests well is paramount.

eredengrin 6y ago

> I mean, sure, we need some amount of polling because it informs decisions such as who gets to participate in televised debates I would strongly disagree with this use of polling data. This is exactly how they justify locking out third party/independent candidates from the debates and preventing them from getting any traction, it's the two party duopoly at its finest (also how we end up with ironic tweets like [1]). I think a much better system would be that anyone who will be on the ballot in enough states to take the presidency (ie 270 electoral votes) should be included. Requiring being on the ballot in enough states ensures that there is a reasonable base level of support for the candidate (since it's not particularly easy to get on that many ballots) and is also an objective measure vs taking into account polls that might not even have many candidates as options. Even if that allows some candidates you might consider "unviable" to participate, I still say that's a good thing. At least it allows them to show their ideas for how to address various issues (which may influence the platforms of the larger parties if there appears to be broad support for it) and also allows them to potentially gain more support in the future. [1] https://twitter.com/GovGaryJohnson/status/1314679508184727554 https://twitter.com/GovGaryJohnson/status/131467950818472755...

ttesttom 6y ago

It's not just for politics. For example, it's used frequently in public health. There have been a ton of polls about mask wearing, whether someone would take a vaccine etc. that help guide public health policy makers and give them a semblance of an idea of where the public is at versus just guessing. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/10/poll-increasing-bipartisan-majority-americans-support-mask-wearing/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/10/poll-incr... https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2020/10/19/covid19-coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-racial-disparities/ https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2020/10/19/covid19-corona...